2026 U.S. Risks: Russia, Iran, Venezuela /Larry Johnson & Lt Col Daniel Davis

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Ukraine–Russia war outlook:

The speaker argues Russia will make faster-than-expected advances toward the Dnipro River, potentially leading to a front-line collapse in 2025–early 2026. The core issue cited is Ukraine’s manpower and training crisis: even if Ukraine recruits ~30,000 soldiers per month, it lacks secure facilities to train them properly. Casualties (~40,000/month) plus reported desertions (20,000–40,000/month, per pro-Ukraine sources) are described as mathematically unsustainable. This imbalance, combined with increased Russian operational focus and Putin’s heightened frontline engagement, is expected to culminate in a breakthrough.

Israel, Gaza, and Iran:

The analysis claims Israel has failed to decisively defeat Hamas despite overwhelming advantages, revealing limits in Israeli military effectiveness. Israel is portrayed as overstretched and heavily dependent on U.S. support. The speaker expects Israel to seek a pretext to resume or expand strikes on Iran in early 2026.

Iran’s position:

Iran is assessed as militarily stronger than before the June “12-day war,” having rebuilt and expanded missile capabilities and received increased support from Russia and China (notably air defenses). If conflict resumes, Iran’s missile forces are expected to inflict significant damage on Israel.

Regional dynamics:

Hezbollah and Hamas are described as still intact and capable of rearming via long-standing smuggling networks. The earlier ceasefire is characterized as a pause driven by mutual pain rather than a resolution of underlying causes, making renewed conflict likely.

Overall Q1 2026 forecast:

Likely continued deterioration for Ukraine’s battlefield position; heightened risk of renewed Israel–Iran confrontation; persistent instability across the Middle East due to unresolved structural drivers of conflict.