January 18, 2026
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Larry Johnson argues that Trump’s reckless rhetoric and willingness to use military force have badly undermined U.S. credibility and global stability. Drawing lessons from Iraq’s “shock and awe,” they contend Iran would not collapse under bombing: it is larger, far better prepared, has dispersed missile capabilities, and has deepened military and intelligence cooperation with Russia and China. Any attack on Iran could trigger regional escalation, closure of the Strait of Hormuz (threatening most global oil supply), and severe economic shock.
The discussion stresses that U.S. threats and mixed signals weaken negotiations with Russia (on Ukraine and nuclear arms) and alarm China, reinforcing the view that the U.S. is unreliable and dangerous. Russia, in particular, is portrayed as moving away from negotiations toward finishing the Ukraine war militarily, under internal pressure to formally declare war on the West.
If strikes on Iran led to U.S. casualties, the speakers foresee rapid escalation toward a wider war, potentially involving nuclear threats, with Russia, China, and even Pakistan intervening to block such use. They warn that nuclear weapons would not “solve” anything and could provoke catastrophic retaliation. Overall, the argument is that bipartisan U.S. belligerence, lack of credible diplomacy, and overreliance on military power are pushing the world toward a highly dangerous confrontation with no trusted off-ramp.
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