IRAN: It's all about Regime Change, Regime Change... /Larry Johnson

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Larry Johnson argues that claims most Iranians want to overthrow the Islamic Republic are misleading. He contrasts a U.S.-funded poll suggesting 80% support regime change with polling from the University of Maryland indicating roughly 70% support the current government, though many criticize its economic management. He blames Iran’s economic troubles primarily on U.S. sanctions.

He frames current U.S. messaging as “operational preparation of the environment” — using propaganda and information operations to justify potential war. He disputes the claim that Iran is the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, citing U.S. State Department reports showing most terrorist attacks over the past 25 years were carried out by Sunni extremist groups, not Iranian-backed groups. He argues the terrorism narrative is being used to build support for regime change.

Responding to comments from JD Vance, he says the real red line publicly emphasized is Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, but he believes broader demands — ending ballistic missile development and support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah — signal that regime change is the true objective. He downplays the global threat posed by those groups compared to organizations like the Taliban and ISIS.

He rejects statements from Mike Pompeo that Iran is irrational, arguing Iran has not attacked other countries over the past four decades, while the U.S. supported Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War. He contends Iran’s hostility toward the U.S. is rooted in that history.

Finally, he argues Iran’s situation is very different from Iraq before the 2003 invasion, claiming Iran’s military and national cohesion are stronger and that external pressure may actually rally domestic support around its leadership rather than weaken it.