John Mearsheimer: No Winning in Iran for the U.S.

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John Mearsheimer argues:

Ethnic groups in Iran: Azerbaijanis make up roughly 16–24% of Iran’s population and Kurds about 10%, meaning around 30% of Iranians are non-Persian groups concentrated in the northwest. Some policymakers speculate about arming these groups to spark an uprising against the Iranian government.

Regional risks: Supporting Kurdish or Azerbaijani separatism would be extremely dangerous regionally. Turkey strongly opposes any Kurdish independence, because it could encourage separatism among Kurds in Turkey, Iraq, and Iran, potentially destabilizing the region.

Possible U.S. strategy: If bombing and political pressure fail to force Iran to surrender, the U.S. and Israel might look for alternative strategies, such as:

Supporting insurrections among Kurds or Azerbaijanis

Deploying small numbers of U.S. troops, CIA personnel, or special forces inside Iran to assist them.

Military feasibility problems:

Iran’s mountainous terrain and geography make invasion difficult.

Turkey likely wouldn’t allow U.S. forces to stage from its territory.

Small numbers of troops would likely not be enough to trigger a successful uprising, but sending more would lead to a larger ground war, which leaders want to avoid.

Strategic incoherence: Critics argue the U.S. does not have a clear strategy. Initial steps—military pressure, leadership “decapitation,” and ongoing bombing—have not produced regime collapse, so policymakers keep escalating and searching for new options.

Pattern of escalation: Historically, when strategies fail, governments often double down rather than withdraw, climbing the “escalation ladder.” The speaker compares this to the Vietnam War, where gradual escalation never produced victory.

International involvement: France has announced it will send the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and aircraft to the region to support Gulf allies, though critics argue this will not significantly change the military balance.

Overall point: The discussion concludes that there is no clear plan for how the U.S. could actually “win” against Iran, and escalating military steps without a coherent strategy risks repeating past conflicts where escalation led to prolonged war without success.