Col Douglas Macgregor: NO, the IRAN WAR is NOT OVER

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Colonel Douglas Macgregor argues that official U.S. statements claiming success in Operation Epic Fury are misleading and resemble overly optimistic reporting during the Vietnam War.

Key points:

Statistics vs. reality: Macgregor says officials—including Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump—are emphasizing statistics (targets hit, sorties flown, missile reductions) that don’t prove strategic success.

Historical parallel: He compares the messaging to Vietnam and even the bombing phase before the ground war in the Gulf War, where reported destruction levels were exaggerated until troops saw the real situation.

Iran still capable: Despite heavy strikes on air defenses and industry, Iran continues launching ballistic missiles and damaging targets in Israel and the Gulf region.

Leadership strikes ineffective: Attempts to kill or remove top Iranian leaders have not caused collapse; replacements quickly take power.

Targeting problems: Iran is reportedly shooting down reconnaissance platforms, making it difficult for the U.S. to find missile launch sites.

War likely to continue: Macgregor believes the conflict is far from over despite statements suggesting it will end soon.

Major global economic impact:

About 25% of the world’s oil supply is reportedly offline due to disruptions in Gulf production and shipping.

35% of global fertilizer shipments are halted.

Rising energy costs could increase electricity, manufacturing, and food prices worldwide.

Global supply stress: Europe already had low natural-gas reserves, while countries like China and India depend heavily on Gulf oil—making the conflict a major risk for global energy markets.

Bottom line:

Macgregor argues that the war is being publicly portrayed as a rapid success, but in reality Iran retains significant military capability and the conflict could have long-lasting military and global economic consequences.