Iran's Unwavering Attacks / Lt Col Daniel Davis & Col Jacques Baud

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Col Jacques Baud argues that after the U.S. deployed military personnel into hotels and civilian locations across the region, Iran began striking those locations, targeting the military personnel wherever they were, even in civilian areas.

Iran’s rationale, according to the speaker, was that U.S. forces had previously been operating from “sanctuaries” in countries Iran initially avoided attacking, such as Saudi Arabia. Once the war began, Iran decided to strike those forces wherever they were located.

The speaker claims the war began due to a misjudgment by the U.S. and Israel, who believed that killing a few Iranian leaders would destabilize Iran and trigger internal unrest. Instead, Iran remained stable and unified.

They argue the attack occurred during ongoing negotiations, including a Russia-brokered attempt earlier in the year to establish a non-aggression pact between Israel and Iran.

At the UN Security Council, the speaker was surprised that China and Russia abstained rather than vetoing the resolution. One possible explanation is that Russia wants to maintain a mediator role in the conflict.

Many Middle Eastern leaders reportedly contacted Vladimir Putin rather than Western leaders, suggesting Russia is seen as a diplomatic intermediary able to talk with all sides, including Iran.

The discussion then shifts to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes.

The speaker agrees that controlling the strait is the military center of gravity of the conflict. Iran has long warned it could block it if attacked.

They argue that Iran would not need sophisticated weapons to disrupt shipping—insurance costs and risk alone could halt tanker traffic, which would have major effects on global energy markets.

Finally, the speaker suggests the U.S. Navy may be more vulnerable in the Persian Gulf than publicly stated, similar to how Ukraine pushed back Russia’s fleet using missiles and drones despite having little navy of its own.

Core takeaway:

The speaker frames the war as the result of Western miscalculation, argues Iran remains stable and capable of retaliation, sees Russia emerging as a potential mediator, and identifies the Strait of Hormuz as the decisive strategic choke point that could shape the conflict and global oil markets.