Col Doug Macgregor: IRAN WAR Not Ending Anytime Soon

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Summary:

Killing top Iranian leaders (including the Supreme Leader) did not cause the expected collapse of Iran’s government. New leaders quickly replaced them, and the state continued functioning.

Iran is still launching ballistic missiles and striking targets in Israel and around the Gulf, showing its military capability remains intact.

Important Iranian missile facilities, especially underground “missile cities” in eastern Iran, have not been destroyed because many are out of range of U.S. weapons.

The conflict has severely disrupted the global energy system:

About 25% of the world’s oil supply is currently offline.

Gulf countries have cut 6.7 million barrels per day (about 33% of regional production) because oil cannot be exported if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked.

Storage tanks filled up, forcing producers to shut down oil extraction.

35% of global fertilizer shipments are also halted, which could increase food prices worldwide.

Higher energy costs will likely lead to:

Rising electricity prices

More expensive industrial goods

Higher food and consumer prices

Pressure on central banks like the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high instead of cutting them.

Europe and Asia are especially vulnerable due to low natural gas inventories and heavy reliance on Gulf energy.

Even though the U.S. produces large amounts of oil and gas, global oil prices affect the U.S. economy, so inflation and higher costs will eventually impact Americans.

The speaker argues the economic effects may start being felt in the U.S. by late spring or summer.

International pressure to end the conflict could grow, and countries like China and Russia might support Iran if the economic disruption continues.

Attempts by Donald Trump to reassure markets may calm the public temporarily, but analysts believe the energy and economic impacts will eventually become unavoidable.

Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait because the demands being made (no uranium enrichment, dismantling missiles, and abandoning allies) are seen as equivalent to surrender, which Iran will not accept.

Bottom line:

The conflict is not ending soon, Iran’s military capabilities remain active, and the biggest impact may be a global economic shock driven by disrupted oil, gas, and fertilizer supplies.