Update, UK
July 14, 2020
105,310
2,767
1,120
3.69%
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Dr John Campbell Episodes Around July 14, 2020
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30:08Now PlayingUpdate, UK
YouTube Description
as posted by the channelUK
Prepare now for a winter COVID-19 peak, Academy of Medical Sciences, 14th July
37 excerpts
Preparations to avoid second wave worst-case scenario in NHS hospitals must start now
COVID-19 is more likely to spread in winter
More time indoors
Virus able to survive longer in colder, darker winter conditions.
Problems
Disruption already created
Backlog of patients
Possibility of a flu epidemic
Other infectious diseases
Asthma, heart attack, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and stroke
Overlapping symptoms of COVID-19, flu and other winter infections
Internal redeployments
Slower with reduced throughput capacity
Risk of the health service being overwhelmed
Actions
Minimising transmission in the community
Public information campaign for all
Tailored to individuals and communities at high risk
Comprehensive, near real-time, population-wide surveillance system
Flu vaccination, concerted effort
Minimise coronavirus and flu transmission everywhere
Track, trace and isolate programme ready for winter
Shielding
Hospitals and care homes
COVID-19 and COVID-19-free zones
Ensure there is adequate PPE
System-wide infection control, minimise transmission in hospital and other residential care settings
Factors
High degree of uncertainty about how epidemic will evolve
Rt 1.7 from September 2020 onwards
Peak in hospital admissions and deaths in January and February 2021
September 2020 to June 2021, 119,900 hospital-based deaths (excluding care homes)
Government would act to reduce the transmission rate
Dexamethasone (and heparin)
Need for immediate action
It must be done now
Masks mandated in shops in England from 24th July. Already mandatory in shops in Scotland.
Germany, Spain, Italy and Greece, have already made it compulsory
YouGov poll
UK , 36%
Spain, 86%
Italy, 83%
France, 78%
Germany, 65%
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