Coronavirus, Weekend Update

US, 0 to 14.48 minutes

UK, 14.48 minutes

India, 22.25 minutes

Africa, 30.25 minutes

United States

Cases, 4, 917, 050

Deaths, 160, 702

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (Washington University)

Deaths, 295, 011 by December 1

Meaning 134, 309 deaths to come

Assuming some lockdowns as death rates rise

Starting today, if 95% of the people in the US were to wear masks when leaving home

228,271 deaths by December 1

Saving 66, 740 lives

Dr. Christopher Murray

People’s inconsistent use of those measures is a serious problem

We’re seeing a rollercoaster in the United States

Fewer transmissions of the virus in Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas

But deaths will continue to rise for the next week or two

Reasons for recent drop in infections

Local mandates for mask use

Bar and restaurant closures

More responsible behaviour by the public

The public’s behaviour had a direct correlation to the transmission of the virus and, in turn, the numbers of deaths

Areas with increases in transmission

Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Virginia

These states may experience increasing cases for several weeks and then may see a response toward more responsible behaviour

Mask wearing

Mandates with no penalties, 8%

Mandates with penalties, 15%

Overall 5% increase since mid-July

Lockdowns when the daily death rate reaches 8 per million

August – Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, and South Carolina

September – Georgia and Texas

October – Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Oregon.

November – Alabama, Arkansas, California, Iowa, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah,

Washington, and Wisconsin.

If mask use is increased to 95%, the re-impositions could be delayed 6 to 8 weeks on average

UK

Preston

Household meeting ban

Ban on households gathering in each other’s homes and gardens

Limiting gatherings also in parts of England’s north west, West Yorkshire and Leicester

ONS, England and Wales

27 July to 2 August 2020

28, 300 people within the community infected

One in 1,900 individuals

0.68 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000

3, 700 new cases per day

Wales

1, 400 people had COVID-19

One in 2, 200 people

Reproduction rate

R up to 0.8 -1.0

Last week 0.8 – 0.9

England, R = 0.8 – 1.0

Scotland, R = 0.6 – 1.0

N. Ireland, R = 0.8 -1.8

Aberdeen cluster

+ 22 = 101 cases

Nicola Sturgeon, "furious" at 8 footballers who broke lockdown rules

"Unacceptable" that eight Aberdeen players had visited a bar

They blatantly broke the rules

Now self-isolating after 2 tested positive

30 venues now linked to the cluster

India

Cases, + 62,538 = 2, 027, 074

+ 1 m cases in past 3 weeks

Deaths, 41, 585

US, Brazil, India

Third of 2m cases currently active

Delhi, 25% have been infected

5 million cases

IFR appears low

First case, Kerala, 30 January

173 days to reach a million on 16 July

21 days to reach two million

Lot of current rural spread with poor health care, e. g. Bihar

65% use private hospitals, clinics and doctors

Healthcare costs increasing

1% of the GDP on public healthcare

Indian government spends $63 per person on healthcare

China spent $398 (WHO, 2016)

176 million people still live on less than $2 a day.

Ignored and struggling infrastructure could collapse

Daily wage earners and contract workers form almost 80% of the workforce.

Africa

Cases top 1,000,000

Low levels of testing

More rapid spread through the continent

Limited health care provision

Limited oxygen

South Africa

Population, 58 m

Cases, 538, 184

Deaths, 9, 604

Hospitals overwhelmed in areas