Pandemic, Child cases and lowering fatality rates
September 4, 2020
70,855
2,712
1,195
5.51%
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Dr John Campbell Episodes Around September 4, 2020
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28:44Now PlayingPandemic, Child cases and lowering fatality rates
YouTube Description
as posted by the channelMexico
Stage 3 trials, October, Sputnik V
Several thousand volunteers will test that vaccine in our country as close as next month
Contest for influence and prestige
US
Child cases
43 states report age data
Child cases moved up to 9.5% of the cumulative cases
Week ending August 27
+ 44,000 pediatric cases
Cumulative number of infected children, 476,000
NYC, 3.2%
New Jersey, 3.4%
Florida, 5.8%
Connecticut, 5.9%
Massachusetts, 6.7%
Minnesota, 15.1%
New Mexico, 15.7%
Alaska, 15.9%
North Dakota,16.0%
Tennessee, 17.1%
Wyoming,18.3%
Children, hospitalizations
1.7% of cumulative number for all ages
Hawaii, 0.6%
Arizona, 4.1%
Children, Mortality
Nationwide, 0.07% of all COVID-19 deaths
19 of the 43 states reporting age distributions have had no deaths yet
Deaths, 101 (August 27)
US trends
New York
Cases down
Progressive reopening
Midwest, cases increasing
Iowa, North Dakota and South Dakota
20% + positive test results
Iowa, cases + 8,300 (last week), up 116%
Minnesota, cases up 27% last week
Indiana, cases up 35%
UK
Increasing cases
England, NHS Test and Trace, 20 August and 26 August
Cases, weekly + 6,732
Highest since May
Up 6% on week before
Contacts reached, down to 69.4% from 77.1%.
High cases, low deaths
(Dr. Andrew Bayliff)
‘First wave’
Most testing hospital based
Patients presenting with relatively severe symptoms
Self-selecting sample
Biased towards older patients with comorbidities
Most positive cases never tested, therefore undiagnosed
Many asymptomatic and mild cases
‘Current wave’
Much more testing
Many via track and trace
Therefore picking up a representative sample of the total infected population
Mortality rates for recent ‘cases’ will be biased more towards the statistically true outcomes
i.e. the true IFR
Testing rate is more than x100 from the early weeks
‘chalk and cheese’
‘apples and oranges”
Q and A
Will this vaccine change my DNA?
Contact tracing apps can sharply reduce the spread of Covid-19 even when only a few people use them
Non-pharmaceutical interventions
Google and Oxford University
An app used by 15% of the population
Together with a well-staffed contact-tracing workforce
Can lead to a 15% drop in infections
And an 11% drop in deaths
Google and Apple.
Bluetooth signals
Anonymously notifies a person if someone they met contracts Covid-19
Past few weeks
Six US states
Two dozen countries
No major hitches
Thailand
First locally transmitted case in 100 days
Prison inmate was diagnosed
Dozens of contacts are now being tested
Arrested for drug offences on 26 August
Guests & Subjects Covered
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