Pandemic Update, 30 September

Correction, Number of infections in India is proabably 9, 620,000, not 60, million as written. However the IFR calculation is still valid as this is based on the number of reported deaths, compared to the overall population. This means the US is likly to have a higher overall number of infections, compared to India.

North Korea

Coronavirus under safe and stable control, (NK UN ambassador, Kim Song)

Thanks to the far-sighted leadership of the government of the DPRK ... the anti-epidemic situation in our country is now under safe and stable control

UK

Cases, 6,874 + 6,042 + 5,693 + 4,044 + 7,143

Highest single figure for 24 hours

Cases, 19, 247 + 19, 661 + 19, 523 + 19,373 +

Active cases,

Deaths, +71

Highest 24 hours since July

India

Cases, 6, 148, 562

Deaths, 96, 318

Indian Council of Medical Research

National antibody study

30,283 households and 28,000 individuals

National prevalence, 0.74%

60 million infections

18 – 45 years (43.3%)

46 – 60 years (39.5%)

IFR = 0.16%

Deaths at 70% of population infected would be 1, 456, 000

France

Cases, + 4,070 (Mon) + 8,051 (Tue)

Deaths, 81 + 85

Hospitalised, + 85 = 6,500

ITU, + 40 = 1,204

US

Recent Increase in COVID-19 Cases Reported Among Adults Aged 18–22 Years — United States, May 31–September 5, 2020

Young adults with COVID-19 can spread infection to their contacts and communities.

August 2–September 5

Weekly cases, 18–22 years

Increased 55% nationally

Northeast (144%)

Midwest (123%)

Increases in cases not attributable to increased testing.

Therefore

Young adults, also in colleges and universities

Should take precautions

Mask wearing, social distancing, and hand hygiene, and follow local, state, and federal guidance

Institutions of higher education should take action to promote healthy environments

Multiple COVID-19 Clusters on a University Campus — North Carolina, August 2020

A North Carolina university

Rapid increase in cases and clusters within 2 weeks of opening

August 3–25

670 laboratory-confirmed cases

96% were among patients aged less than 22 years

Eighteen clusters of five or more epidemiologically linked cases

All within 14 days of one another

Student gatherings and congregate living settings

Both on and off campus contributed

Therefore

Enhanced measures are needed to reduce transmission at institutes of higher education

Reducing on-campus housing density

Ensuring adherence to masking and other mitigation strategies

Increasing testing

Discouraging student gatherings.

Vaccine

Pune, Serum Institute of India

World's largest manufacturer of vaccines, 1.5 billion vaccine doses annually

Mostly for the developing world.

Polio, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, Hib, Hepatitis B, measles and rubella

Covishield, Oxford / AstraZeneca

2 million does so far

Increasing to 10 million per month

100 million if required

Stage III clinical trials, Brazil, South Africa

€12 ($13) per dose

SII, started manufacturing a nasal COVID-19 vaccine

Has completed preclinical animal studies

Phase I in the UK by end of 2020

Brazil

Amazon resurgence

Brasilia, (1.8 million) closed bars, river beaches, parties banned

Manaus

Never imposed a full lockdown

COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon (Sao Paulo’s Institute of Tropical Medicine)

Cases increased quickly during March and April

Declined slowly from May to September

Antibody tests, 44% - 66%

Not wearing masks, packing into bars and attending parties

Infections now increasing

Netherlands

Cases, + 3,011 (a daily record)

(National Institute for Health, RIVM)

The number of cases rose sharply in almost all regions and in all age groups