Dr John Campbell
@campbellteaching·3.3M subscribers·3.1K videos
Thanksgiving surge inevitable
Posted
November 26, 2020
Views
108,353
Likes
4,046
Comments
2,045
Engagement
5.62%
November 26, 2020
108,353
4,046
2,045
5.62%
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29:12Now Playing+ 41 (0.2% positivity) (last week)
= 319 (0.3% positivity) (since September 27th)
UK Influenza
Flu activity, remains low
Week 46 (19th November)
One influenza (influenza B) positive sample
Rhinovirus activity remains high
Flu vaccine uptake is higher in all groups except pregnant women
72.9% in 65+ year olds
37.8% in under 65 years in a clinical risk group
30.8% in pregnant women
45.0% in 2-year-olds
46.8% in 3-year-olds
United States
CDC trends
Official US hospitalizations
Thanksgiving
A shared, indoor meal
Inter-household mixing
Ian Mackay, Virologist, University of Queensland
From Australia, this looks like a mindbogglingly dangerous chapter in the out-of-control American COVID-19 story
Sadly, for some, this will be a Thanksgiving that is remembered for all the wrong reasons
Australia, mass sporting events, Sydney Opera House reopening
This time we all know where the virus is, we know how bad it can be, and we can be sure that this event will cause more sickness and some deaths
The virus will thrive among all the chances to trigger superspreading events among households and larger gatherings and parties. This is its way.
Yap Boum, Cameroonian epidemiologist
The willingness of some Americans to risk their and their family’s health to gather for a single day has left him befuddled.
From my perspective, I found it really crazy
On one hand, you see the people dying, on the other hand … you see that the vaccine is close. Why can’t you wait despite, of course … the mental challenge?
Jennifer Beam Dowd, University of Oxford, Demographic Science
America is bracing for danger this week
Here we have time to encourage safe Christmas alternatives rather than family Russian roulette
UK
Symptom trends this week, UK
Currently 34,279 daily new symptomatic cases
Last week, 35,963
UK R value is around 1.0
England
1.0. Wales
0.9. Scotland, 0.9
Cases in the over-60s remains fairly flat in most regions
Official UK trends
Symptom trends this week, UK
Currently 34,279 daily new symptomatic cases
Last week, 35,963
UK R value is around 1.0
England
1.0. Wales
0.9. Scotland, 0.9
Cases in the over-60s remains fairly flat in most regions
ONS
Latest six-weeks
Household survey
653,615 swab tests
7,017 positive
5,522 people
from 4,298 households
England, 15 to 21 November 2020
Prevalence, 633,000
One in 85 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 90 to 1 in 80).
Increases in the positivity rate can only be seen in secondary school-age children
Positivity rates have decreased in adults aged 35 years and over
Wales, 15 to 21 November 2020
Prevalence,16,400
One in 185
Northern Ireland
Prevalence, 12,700
One in 145
Scotland
Prevalence has increased recent week, 45,700
One in 115
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