Monday Pandemic Update, 2 sides of the pond

Australia

Cases, + 9 + 7 = 27,972

NSW, + 5 + 4

QLD, + 2 + 3

WA, + 2 + 0

Deaths, 908

Hospitalisations

NSW, 5 (0)

NT, 13 (0)

QLD, 11 (0)

ACT, SA, TAS, VIC, WA

United States

Cases, + 211,073 = 14,534,035

Cases up 10% in past week

Current hospitalizations, 101,487 (20,145)

Ventilated, 7,094

Deaths, + 2,762 + 2,861 + 2,439 + 2, 310 = 280,135

CDC trends

Official US hospitalizations

California

Stay at home orders, 30 million people

Titrated against intensive care unit capacity

University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics

COVID-19 Results Briefing: the United States of America

December 4, 2020

Cases and deaths continue to increase steadily

Reference scenario, expected scale-up of vaccination

Cumulative deaths by April 1, 539,000

Peak daily deaths, 3,000 in mid-to-late January

Vaccination is likely to speed the transition back to normal later in the year

but will prevent only 9,000 deaths by April 1

A further 14,000 lives can be saved with more rapid vaccine scale-up targeting high-risk individuals

Death rate could be higher, State governors implementing packages of mandates as hospital stress becomes high

Scaling up mask use to 95% can save 66,000 lives by April 1

Current situation

Last week, cases + 165,200 per day

Week before, + 145,900 per day

Last week, deaths + 1,660 per day

Week before, deaths + 1,470

COVID-19 the number 1 cause of death in the United States of America this week

Effective R, greater than 1 in 43 states

We estimated that 15% of people in the US have been infected as of November 30

White House’s coronavirus task force to governors, Sunday

The covid risk to all Americans is at a historic high

We are in a very dangerous place due to the current, extremely high covid baseline

and limited hospital capacity.

Brazil

Population 210 million

GDP per capita in Brazil, $8,919 in 2018

(India's at $2,009 GDP per capita)

People unable to get help in the medical system

Being found dead at home

Hundreds can’t get into intensive care beds

Hospital officials warning of supply shortages

Imminent collapse in medical services

Private heath-care system, 98 percent capacity for ITU

Suzana Lobo, Brazilian Association of Intensive Medicine

Fear — has dulled

Many people either simply don’t care or no longer believe in the dangers posed by the virus

We’re facing a campaign of disinformation and denial

The impact in January will be very, very large

Our fear is that in January and February, the health system won’t be able to bear it

WHO

Jun.08 -- Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the World Health Organization’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit

Transmission of the coronavirus by people who aren’t showing symptoms is "very rare.”

It is rare for a asymptomatic person to transmit on to a second individual

We need to follow the symptomatic cases