New viral strain spreads through UK
December 29, 2020
172,524
6,569
2,411
5.21%
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Dr John Campbell Episodes Around December 29, 2020
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26:11Now PlayingNew viral strain spreads through UK
YouTube Description
as posted by the channelVariant of Concern (VOC), 202012/01
Two week delay on full genome sequencing
Absence of amino acids 69 and 70 (Δ69-70)
Shows up on PCR test
S gene target failure (SGTF)
Cohort studies
Is there a greater risk of reinfections with the new variant compared to the wild-type virus?
20 September and 15 December 2020
Defined by a 90 day gap
New Variant case group
Two reinfections
1.13 per 1000 cases
Wild-type comparator cases
Three reinfections
1.70 per 1000 cases
Rate of detected re-infections
Reinfected with wild-type comparator
0.60 per 1000
Reinfected with new variant
0.61 per 1000
Does this non-difference have implications for vaccine efficacy?
Yes, the same immune response generates immunity to both new variant AND wild viral strains
Does the new variant lead to more severe illness and deaths than the wild-type virus?
Illness severity
No statistically significant difference in hospitalisation
or 28-day case fatality
Does the new variant lead to more hospitalisations than the wild-type virus?
Data from positive 3,538 cases
20 September to 15 December 2020
42 admitted
New variant group
16 admissions (0.9%)
Wild-type comparator cases
26 admissions, (1.5%)
Difference was not significant
Numbers likely rise in both groups with time
Is the new variant more deadly than the wild-type virus?
The 28-day case fatality
Only 2,700 cases with a full 28 days elapsed since the specimen date
New variant cases
12 of 1,340 (0.89%) died
Wild-type comparator cases
10 of 1,360 (0.73%) died
Odds ratio:1.21, p=0.65
Difference was not significant
Is the new variant more transmissible than the wild-type virus?
Secondary attack rates
5 October and 6 December 2020
1,105,388 cases reported to Test and Trace
46,237 (4.2%) had genomic sequencing data
1,978 had the variant (VOC 202012/01), 4.3% of those with sequencing data.
A total of 228,361 of all contacts notified by cases in this period became cases
15.1% among those whose index case was confirmed to have the VOC 202012/01
9.8% among those whose index case was sequenced and confirmed with other variants
Is this increased transmissibility consistent with previous data?
Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible
95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%
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