New variant, same symptoms

No evidence for changes in symptoms from UK variant

1.76 million users between 28th September and 27th December 2020

Using longitudinal symptom and test reports, n = 36,920

Northern Ireland, unknown

First identified in December 2020 in the south east of England

Studied association between the regional proportion of B.1.1.7 and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility

Disease severity

No evidence of an association between B.1.1.7 and number of symptoms reported

No evidence of increased number of hospitalisations

Counter evidence

SAGE meeting paper, 21st January

There is a realistic possibility that VOC B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of death compared to non-VOC viruses.

Disease duration

No evidence for change

Reported symptoms

No difference in symptoms reported

No difference in symptom duration

No difference in proportion of asymptomatic case

Claire Steves on symptoms

It’s important to emphasise the range of symptoms both the new and the old variant can cause,

such as headaches and sore throat,

in addition to the classic triad of cough, fever and loss of smell

Likely reinfection rate

Positive tests results from 36,509

304 reported two positive tests more than 90 days apart, 249 identified as reinfection

No difference in reinfection reporting rates across the different NHS regions

Around 0.7%

95% CI 0.6-0.8

No evidence that this was higher compared to older strains

Tim Spector on reinfection

It’s reassuring that reinfections are still really rare many months after previous infection, suggesting that both natural immunity and vaccines will be effective against this new strain

Increase in R(t)

By a factor of 1.35

Regional and national lockdowns have reduced R(t) below 1 in regions with very high proportions of B.1.1.7

Tim Spector

This research highlights the unique value of the ZOE app in understanding the impact of new coronavirus variants across the population in a matter of weeks,

and we need our app users to help us maintain vigilance against further new strains as they emerge

SA VOC in UK

About 100 cases in the UK

Oxford A/A vaccine offers limited protection against mild and moderate disease caused by SA variant

AstraZeneca, not yet been able to properly establish if prevention of severe disease and hospitalisation

Current data mostly from young and healthy adults

AZ confident it will protect against serious cases

Similar neutralising antibodies still work

Prof Sarah Gilbert, Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine

Working on a new vaccine designed to combat the South African variant

This year we expect to show that the new version of the vaccine will generate antibodies that recognise the new variant

It looks very much like it will be available for the autumn

We're already working on the first part of the manufacturing process in Oxford

that will be passed on to other members of the manufacturing supply chain as we go through the spring

Onset of protection

200,000 reports from vaccinated people

After 12 days, 53% reduction in new cases compared to non-vaccinated controls

First post trial data the vaccines are working after first shot

No protection at all for first 12 days

Toon, Netherlands

Snow

Spread of new variants

UK, SA, two Brazilian variants

UK variant, (Pathogenic Surveillance)

Week of 11th to 17th January, 19.8% UK variant

Week of 27 January to 2 February, about two-thirds

South Africa variant

Found 23 times

Most had epidemiological links

Brazilian variants

P1 variant, 2 people who recently visited Brazil

P2 variant, 3 people, two with no travel history

Reproduction number on 15th January

Below 1 overall

Old variant, 0.86

UK variant, 1.28

It can therefore be deduced that the UK variant is more contagious

Current restrictions

(Dutch CDC)

Lockdown and curfew

CDC, loosen measures now, hospitals are at risk of being overrun by March

Global vaccine tracker

UK vaccine tracker

US vaccine tracker

Europe vaccine tracker