India variant more transmissible

International spread, B.1.617.2

44 countries

Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, Professor Anthony Harnden

Vaccines are almost certainly less effective at reducing transmission of the Indian variant

The vaccines may be less effective against mild disease

but we don't think they're less effective against severe disease

all the evidence so far suggests there is no evidence of increased severity of illness or that the variant evades the vaccine

Kolkata

There are currently five VOCs in the United States

B.1.1.7: UK

B.1.351: SA

P.1: Brazil

B.1.427 and B.1.429: California

UK official numbers of B.1.617.2

UK, B.1.617.2

SAGE, now confident it is more transmissible than existing variants

Not sure how much

Prof Chris Whitty

That's a really critical question to which we do not yet have the answer

SAGE, realistic possibility it could be 50%

Probably will become the dominant strain in the UK

Outbreak, south Glasgow

Scotland, 35

Northern Ireland, 12

Wales, 11

Sage report 13th May, 89th meeting

R rate

England 0.8 – 1.1

Wales, 0.7 – 1

Scotland, 0.8 – 1.0

NI, 0.8 – 1.1

There are now multiple fast-growing clusters of this variant in the UK

Largest in the northwest of England

Observed doubling times are around a week

Places where transmission of this variant is occurring have different characteristics to each other

Plausible biological reasons as to why some of the mutations present could make this variant more transmissible

In the areas where numbers of infections are increasing rapidly under the measures currently in place,

an even faster increase can be expected if measures are relaxed (high confidence)

If this variant were to have a 40-50% transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7,

indicate that it is likely that progressing with step 3 alone would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks)

Progressing with both steps 3 and 4 at the earliest dates could lead to a much larger peak

SAGE and immune escape

May be some reduction in protection given by vaccines or by naturally acquired immunity from past infection,

though data on this are still mixed.

Any such reduction is likely to affect protection against infection more than protection against severe disease or death

not yet any clear evidence of any difference in disease severity following infection with this variant

(rapid sequencing of hospitalised cases and infections post vaccination is important)

JCVI continues to review the evidence on different vaccination strategies.