Vaccines, third doses required

United States, White House team, Boosters start September

(FDA depending)

Eight months after Pfizer or Moderna

Same brand

News on second dose of J and J in the next few weeks

Mr. Greg Abbott in Texas

Tested positive for COVID-19 on Tuesday

Is in good health and experiencing no symptoms

Mr. Abbott was vaccinated in December

All close contacts being notified

May not always have been wearing a mask recently

Seven million who are immunocompromised

Booster roll out started in Detroit yesterday

Children

Cases, + 121,427 in past 7 days

Hospital admissions, x 3 in past 7 days

Predictive indicators seem to have changed

Data from Israel Health Ministry

N = 2.5 million (16 and over)

Second dose administered within the 21 to 28 day interval set by national guidelines

A significant drop in protection against hospitalization among people age 65 and older

Who were vaccinated in January and February

Delta (B.1.617.2) variant became the dominant strain in Israel in June 2021

Israel is currently experiencing a new surge of cases

The correlation between antibody dynamics and clinical protection remains undefined

Correlation between time-from-vaccine and incidence of breakthrough infection

We found that the risk for infection was significantly higher for early vaccinees compared to those vaccinated later

Model 1

We matched 329,177 persons in each group

1,911 cases of breakthrough infection were recorded

1,151 of them in the Early Vaccinees group

760 in the Late Vaccinees group

We found a statistically significant 53% increased risk for breakthrough infection in early vaccines (P less than 0.001)

We found a similar trend across all age groups

Model 2

Individuals who were vaccinated in January 2021

Had a 2.26-fold increased risk for breakthrough infection

Compared to individuals who were vaccinated in April 2021

Israel has already started beginning giving booster shots to people older than 50.

Data on all symptomatic sequenced cases of Covid-19 in England

Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant

After one dose of Pfizer or AZ, delta efficacy = 31%

After one dose of Pfizer or AZ, alpha efficacy = 49%

After two dose of Pfizer, alpha efficacy = 94%

After two dose of Pfizer, delta efficacy = 88%

After two dose of AZ, alpha efficacy = 75%

After two dose of AZ, delta efficacy = 67%

Data from Qatar

BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant in Qatar

Effectiveness against any severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 disease due to delta was 89.7%

Both BNT162b2 (Pfizer) and mRNA-1273 (Moderna) are highly effective in preventing Delta hospitalization and death, but less so in preventing infection

(Moderna may protect against symptomatic infection more than Pfizer)

Paul A. Offit, pediatrician and vaccine expert at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia

We could have done a much better job at setting realistic expectations for this vaccine

And I think that’s hurt us.

Because I think people get disappointed.

They think the vaccine isn’t working.”

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Leaked PP)

July 29, 35,000 breakthrough infections a week

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky

Statement that 97 % of people hospitalized by the virus are unvaccinated

Data was out of date

CDC said Friday

40 to 44% of patients hospitalized with breakthrough infections have compromised immune systems

Heather Scobie, member of the CDC’s Covid-19 Response Team

Delta has high prevalence in the U.S. and has moderate impact on vaccine effectiveness.

The vaccines are likely to still provide protection against severe disease

the potential for waning immunity

Canada, Qatar, Israel, England, Scotland

Vaccine effectiveness at preventing infection ranged 40% to 80%

Effectiveness against severe illness, 90% percent for vaccine recipients overall

(Differences in methodology)

Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

Breakthrough infections were expected

The goal of the vaccines was to make breakthrough infections clinically inconsequential and that’s what they’re doing