Positive UK data

Less people going to hospital with Omicron infection compared to Delta infection. Apologies, I had a few technical problems with todays video

Zoe update: Wednesday 22 December 2021

144,284 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK

In people who have had at least 2 vaccine doses

56,346 new daily symptomatic cases in the UK

70% + cases in England are now Omicron

The UK R value, 1.2

R value in London is 1.5.

From 17,000 omicron cases

Runny nose

Headache

Fatigue (either mild or severe)

Sneezing

Sore throat

(NHS test and trace is not telling users of their Omicron status anymore)

Report 50 - Hospitalisation risk for Omicron cases in England

Differences in the risk of hospitalisation between Omicron and Delta

1st to 14th December inclusive

Analysed data from all PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in England

Cases

S-gene Target Failure (SGTF) and genetic data

Omicron, n = 56,000

Delta, n = 269,000

Reduction in the risk of hospitalisation for Omicron relative to Delta infections

Endpoint, any attendance at hospital

20-25% reduced risk

Endpoint, hospitalisation lasting 1 day or longer

40-45% reduced risk

These reductions must be balanced against the larger risk of infection with Omicron,

due to the reduction in protection provided by both vaccination and natural infection.

Intrinsic differences in severity between Omicron and Delta

Omicron may result in slightly less severe disease

From the few neither previously infected nor vaccinated,

risk of hospitalisation, 11% lower for Omicron versus Delta

Level of protection from previous infection

Reduces the risk of any hospitalisation by 50%

Reduces the risk of a hospital stay of 1+ days by 61%

Risk of symptomatic infection with omicron

More protection after PF/MD than AZ

Hospitalisation risk by vaccination state

AstraZenca (AZ) (doses 1 and 2)

Omicron hazard ratios are lower than for Delta

Pfizer or Moderna (PF/MD) (doses 1 and 2)

Omicron hazard ratios are similar to those seen for Delta

Conclusions, after at least 2 vaccine doses

Protection against omicron infection has been largely lost

Remain substantially protected against hospitalisation

Does not substantially change Sage modelling

Pointing to 3,000 daily hospitalisations in England at the peak next month

Omicron cases in Scotland, Eave II study

(Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19)

Hospital data from 23 November to 19 December

Risk of hospitalisation, 70% lower with Omicron than Delta.

15 hospitalisations with Omicron

Opposed to the 47 admissions from delta

(Expected given the characteristics of those infected)

First case of Omicron confirmed by viral sequencing was recorded in Scotland on November 23, 2021

By December 19, 2021, there were 23,840 S gene negative cases.

These S gene negative cases were predominantly in the age group 20-39 (11,732; 49.2%).

Reinfections, more than 10 times more likely with omicron

Omicron positive cases that were reinfections, 7.6%

Delta cases that were

reinfections, 0.7%

The third/booster vaccine dose was associated with a 57% reduction in the risk of symptomatic omicron infection

(relative to ≥25 weeks post second dose)

Interpretation

These early national data suggest that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta.

Whilst offering the greatest protection against Delta, the third/booster dose of vaccination offers substantial additional protection against the risk of symptomatic COVID-19 for Omicron,

when compared to ≥25 weeks post second vaccine dose.