Dr John Campbell
@campbellteaching·3.3M subscribers·3.1K videos
18 million excess deaths
Posted
March 13, 2022
Views
757,522
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22,389
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Engagement
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March 13, 2022
757,522
22,389
7,062
3.89%
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Paper in the Lancet
)027963/fulltext
Data set
Health metrics and evaluation
Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2021
Estimate excess mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic,
in 191 countries and territories,
including 31 locations in low-income and middle-income countries
12 states in India
Methods
Data collected for pandemic period and past 11 years
All-cause mortality reports
Excess mortality over time was calculated as observed mortality minus expected mortality
Excess mortality = observed mortality -expected mortality
Accounting for late registration,
Six models were used to estimate expected mortality
(statistical model for low data areas)
Findings, as measured by excess mortality
Reported worldwide COVID-19 deaths = 5·94 million,
We estimate 18·2 million
(17·1–19·6 million)
Global all-age rate of excess mortality due to the pandemic, 120·3 deaths per 100 000 of the population
Excess mortality rate exceeded 300 deaths per 100 000 of the population in 21 countries
Cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19
India, 4·07 million
USA, 1·13 million
Russia, 1·07 million
Mexico, 798, 000
Brazil, 792, 000
Indonesia, 736, 000
Pakistan, 664, 000
Bangladesh, 413, 000
Peru, 349, 000
South Africa, 302, 000
Iran, 274, 000
Egypt, 265, 000
Italy, 259, 000
Australia – 18,100
NZ, - 827
Canada, 43,700
UK, 169,000
Excess mortality highest
Russia, 374·6 deaths per 100 000
Mexico, 433.6 per 100 000
Brazil, 186·9 per 100 000
USA, 179·3 per 100 000
UK, 126.8 per 100 000
Canada, 60.5 per 100 000
Australia, - 32.9 per 100 000
NZ, - 9.3 per 100 000
Ratio of excess mortality rate to reported COVID-19 mortality
A measurement of undercounting the true mortality impact of the pandemic
In high-income North America, the ratios were comparatively low
Morocco, 10
Egypt, 12·19
Sudan, 25·12
Afghanistan, 26·06
Yemen, 33·04
Canada, 1.44
US, 1.37
UK, 0.97
Interpretation
The full impact of the pandemic has been much greater than what is indicated by reported deaths due to COVID-19 alone.
Further research is warranted
To distinguish excess mortality that was directly caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection,
and the changes in causes of death as an indirect consequence of the pandemic.
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