Waning vaccine efficacy in the UK

Beijing, 70 cases since Friday

Three P.C.R. tests over five days

zero Covid strategy

Effectiveness against symptomatic disease

After 2 doses of the AstraZeneca

Against the Omicron variant

Starts at 45 to 50%

Drops to almost no effect, 25 weeks after the second dose

With 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna

Effectiveness dropped from around 65 to 70%

Down to around 15% by 25 weeks after the second dose

Two to 4 weeks after a booster dose

Effectiveness ranges from around 60 to 75%

Dropping to almost no effect from 20+ weeks after the booster

Effectiveness against hospitalisation

Alpha and Delta variants

Higher levels of protection against hospitalisation with all vaccines

Omicron

18 to 64 year olds

All COVID-19 cases admitted via emergency care

VE after a booster peaked at 82.4%

Dropped to 53.6% by 15+ weeks after the booster

Needed oxygen/ventilated

VE 97.1% down to 75.9%

Also

Omicron generally causes milder disease,

in particular among younger individuals

All individuals who are hospitalised are tested for COVID-19

An increasing proportion of individuals hospitalised with a positive COVID- 19 test are likely to have COVID-19 as an incidental finding rather than the primary reason for admission.

All 3 vaccines give similar protection against hospitalisation

Effectiveness against mortality

Alpha and Delta

Over 90% protection against mortality with all 3 vaccines

Vaccine effectiveness against mortality with Omicron

At 25-plus weeks following the second dose,

vaccine effectiveness was around 60%