Lab leak, 2020

German spy agency 'believed Covid likely started in lab'

Germany's foreign intelligence service, 80-90% chance that coronavirus accidentally leaked from a Chinese lab

The intelligence service BND, in 2020

Wuhan Institute of Virology had been carrying out experiments where viruses are modified to become more transmissible to humans.

German primary source

World Health Organization (2021) investigation

Lab-leak theory "extremely unlikely"

BND met in Berlin in 2020

Project Saaremaa, looking at viral origins

A team of expert researchers put together

Lab theory "likely"

BND found indications that several violations of safety regulations had occurred at the lab.

BND assessment commissioned by the office of Angela Merkel

Findings were shared with the CIA in autumn of 2024.

China's foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning

"We believe that tracing the origin of Covid-19 is a scientific issue ….

"The conclusion that a laboratory leak is extremely unlikely was reached by the China-WHO joint expert team …..

"This authoritative scientific conclusion has been widely recognised by the international community….

China firmly opposes any form of political manipulation on the issue of Covid-19 origin tracing.

The institute never carried out any gain-of-function research on coronaviruses

NZZ (Zurich)

SARS-CoV-2 virus may have been artificially engineered by modifying an existing virus,

Concern, potential for another pandemic spread from a Chinese laboratory, possibly caused by a different virus.

MERS risk

In 2020, China was working on SARS-like coronaviruses, but also on viruses similar to those producing the Middle East respiratory syndrome, or MERS.

MERS, fatality rate ranging from 20% to 40%

The viruses responsible for MERS circulate in bats, in China for instance.

In discussions of data published by Fortune Journals (Reported by NZZ)

Researchers involved reached the conclusion that experimenters in Wuhan had specifically adapted the MERS virus to humans.

Professor Christian Drosten (German virologist)

The MERS virus is a clear candidate for a pandemic, which is why it is being studied. But this research should not involve making it more transmissible in the laboratory.

The analyses discussed by the scientists meeting with the Federal Intelligence Service reveal a significant amount of manipulation that apparently extends as far as prestigious scientific journals.

Chinese state propaganda was intended to manipulate what was published in scientific journals – and it succeeded.

Christian Drosten

Scientific publications are subject to rigorous reviews of their quality and details.

However, a deliberate, perhaps even politically motivated deception is extremely difficult to control.

WHO report

Viral origins outside China possible

High-ranking researcher at the meetings by the Federal Intelligence Service

‘We never imagined such manipulation was possible – let alone that it would succeed’

One characteristic of the virus that produces COVID-19 is the so-called furin cleavage site, a biological trait that enhances human-to-human transmission.

So far, such a cleavage site has not been found in any of the closely related SARS-CoV-2-like coronaviruses that occur in bats.

Bio-weapon

German intelligence services

There is nothing to suggest that SARS-CoV-2 was specifically developed as a bioweapon.

There is often enormous pressure on researchers to conduct spectacular research quickly and deliver sensational data.

This is particularly true within China

Such an environment increases the likelihood of mistakes