Are China and India fueling Russia's war economy? Jeffrey Sonnenfeld interview | DW Business Special

Professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld from the Yale School of Management joins us to discuss whether India and China are keeping the Russian economy alive and whether their support is enough to counter the blow of Western sanctions. Professor Sonnenfeld argues that the outlook for the Russian economy is far poorer than predictions from the International Monetary Fund suggest and that Russian oil exports are not boosting the economy because they are being sold at such a discounted price.

DW asked the IMF for its response to this interview. An IMF spokesperson issued the following statement:

“The IMF's GDP forecasts for Russia are based on a comprehensive analysis of official data as well as a wide range of third-party data sources, including trade data from Russia's trading partners. Although we anticipate Russia's growth at 0.7 percent in 2023, we expect fiscal and external pressures to emerge later this year. We also expect the Russian economy to lag behind in the medium-term. Specifically, we now project that the size of Russia's economy will be about 7 percent smaller in 2027 than in our pre-war forecasts.

Moreover, our projections are aligned with those of other international organizations and private sector institutions, most of whom have recently revised their short-term economic forecasts upwards. They, like us, also expect lower output prospects in the medium term than was the case before the war. Our projections for Russia, as with those for other members, are founded on a rigorous analysis of official and third-party data. Our work is based on facts.

In addition to Mr. Sonnenfeld’s misconceptions about the IMF’s economic forecasts, his assertions contain regrettable basic factual errors.”

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