What after the fall of Mosul? (the new conflicts)

ISIL? Turkey? The kurds? The government of Baghdad? The american led coalition? Who benefits from Mosul assault?

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In the last episodes we talked respectively about the Syrian kurds, through videos about the towns of Qamishli and Hasakah, then we went in Iraq with the Sinjar mountain and we followed the Yazidis’ tragedy, the fourth video was about the confrontation between Erdogan and the Turkish kurds, through a focus on the town of Diyarbakir. The last video before this one was about the Islamic State, and we specifically targeted the town of Raqqa.

Carte

According to different medias, the offensive is launched by multiple forces, including the American backed coalition, the Iraki government army, the kurds and chia militias. It seems like there are 30 000 soldiers implied, reinforced by heavy airstrikes capacities. Media also say that between one and 1.5 million people are in the city, that they have not been able to flee, and that a big humanitarian crisis is expected by the coalition.

I won’t go too much in the details of the offensive, because I am not sure that I can get good, reliable details about it, but there are a few things that I would like to say.

The point that I mostly wanted to address in this video is about the agenda of some of the different forces implied in the conquest of Mosul, but also of some of the forces, which the retake of Mosul could impact. Welcome on Politis.

There are two towns of critical importance for the Islamic State. In order to defeat the so-called caliphate, you need to defeat those two place: Raqqa and Mosul. Because both these towns are of symbolic importance for the ISIL’s narrative. Raqqa is the heart of the self-proclaimed caliphate while Mosul is of historical importance because it is where the caliphate has been declared. While Raqqa is on the Euphrates, Mosul is on the Tigris River. So those two towns are delimiting the historical Mesopotamia.

If we put the symbolic part aside, Mosul is of strategic importance mostly because it is a huge town, the second biggest city in Iraq after Baghdad. Mosul has between one million and 1.5 inhabitants. We saw that the Islamic State was mainly a sunni, Iraqi group, which could partly rise because of discriminations. Discriminations against sunnis led by the shia government of Baghdad. And Mosul is a sunni, iraqi town which had to suffer from the pro-sunni policy of the government of Baghdad under Nouri-el-maliki. So the Islamic State logically finds much more support in Mosul than in any other important town.

The Iraqi kurds are currently having the wind in their sails. They are seen as one of the only stable force in the region able to efficiently fight the Islamic State, but also as a force which has to be encouraged for those who fight Iran or Turkey. They are also regarded as a democratic, peaceful force by the occident, which appreciates the fact that they protect and provide healthcare to minorities such as Yazidis and Christians. Before, the Iraqi kurds have never had such an important autonomous territory in their hands. Thanks to their military efficiency, to their organization and to the specificity of their location, for many countries they are of strategic interest. The power balance is in their favour more than in the favour of the government of Baghdad, so they can mostly decide to do what they want concerning their territorial gains and the oil field in their possession.

But when the Islamic State is going to fall, the Kurds will more directly face the mainly chia army of the Iraki government, as well as the chia militia backed by Iran. Those forces will logically try to dispossess them of some territories. So – it can seem curious – but on a strictly strategic point of view the kurds might have more interest in the existence of a weak Islamic state than in a Iraki government strengthened by the retake of Mosul. So I am curious about the fact that the kurds take part in this coalition. They may have had important concessions from the Iraki government or from the American-led coalition, like an agreement on oil field or concerning the cities that they are currently regaining in the Niniveh plain.

The agenda of the Iraqi government is obvious. They have to retake Mosul to ensure the territorial integrity of Iraq, to regain credibility and to finally be in power to negotiate territories and oil fields with the kurds. The Iraqi government is still relying on shia militias, like the militia of Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. It is facing ISIL during this offensive, and it may soon diplomatically face the kurds. But it will also face Turkey.