India first superpower by 2050? - by Patrice d'Arras

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If we had a “superpower ranking podium ” the very first seat would be occupied by the United States, of course. We could discuss whether China or Russia would occupy the second seat. As time passes however, China is tremendously increasing its power, whereas Russia is not. At least, not on the same scale. Then would come countries like, Germany, Japan or the United Kingdom. But none of these countries have the potential to challenge the first ranks. One country though, that we could currently put between the 10th or 15th rank, does have the potential to challenge China one day. This country is India, currently led by Narendra Modi elected in 2014.

Let’s start by putting the Indian GDP growth into perspective.

The GDP growth of India is used to be under the GDP growth of China. Here is the GDP of India starting in the year 2000. Here is, in comparison, the GDP of China. So obviously, the Chinese economy has been consistently, developing faster than the Indian one. However, we see that from the year 2014, in terms of GDP growth, India is catching up. Most of the specialized agencies predict a growth of about 7.5% or more in 2017 while they also mention the fact that the GDP of China is slowing down. The Chinese GDP is expected more around 6.5% in 2017, and should continue to slowly go down.

In parallel with this GDP growth catching up, the Indian population weight is also catching up. In its 2012 “”, the United Nations expect the population of India to surpass that of China by 2028. But this was the 2012 report, because in the revision report of 2015, United Nations expect the population of India to surpass that of China by 2022, so 6 years earlier. Thereafter they say, India’s population is projected to continue growing for several decades to 1.5 billion in 2030 and 1.7 billion in 2050 while the population of China is expected to slightly decrease from 2030.