The Stock Market Is ABOUT TO BOTTOM

Here are my bull and bear cases for Stock Market Investing throughout 2022 - Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan

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WHY STOCKS COULD DECLINE:

1. HIGH INFLATION.

The issue we’re facing today is that supply chain bottlenecks lead to less inventory, which leads to higher prices, which gets passed on to the customer, who now needs to make MORE to pay for those higher prices, which means even higher costs need to be factored in, restarting the process over again.

2. HIGHER INTEREST RATES

In fact, as we can see - over time - as rates rise, a large portion of the market begins to sell off, and - with tech stocks having seen a meteoric rise from a worldwide shut down - they tend to suffer, the faster rates increase.

3. SLOWING DEMAND

We’re unlikely to see the same time of explosive growth in the future, absent of a worldwide shut down, and when you compare returns today with the returns of one-to-two years ago, you may be disappointed to see that they’re not as grand as they once were.

4. HIGH CONSUMER DEBT

I think, the sentiment seems to be that people have ALREADY invested what they could into the market, they’ve ALREADY bought their subscriptions, they’ve made all of their discretionary purchases…so, what’s new to look forward to?

WHY STOCKS COULD GO UP:

1. SLOWING INFLATION

The FED expects inflation to START TO SLOW DOWN throughout the next year: they hope to see 2.3% inflation in 2023…and finally, back down to 2.1% inflation in 2024.

2. RISING RATES MIGHT NOT BE BAD

Historically - rising rates are correlated to higher prices for banks, energy, the automotive industry, and transportation. In addition to that, since 1994…it was found that the FIRST interest rate hike led stocks to increase an average of 7.3% in the following 12 months.

3. SMALL CAPS COULD PREDICT THE BOTTOM

In this case, some believe that Small Cap Stocks become the “canary in the coal mine,” while they typically move ahead of the index, while other, larger companies eventually follow. Throughout the last 5 days, the price has relatively bottomed, returning back to its average PE Ratio - SUGGESTING that, we could soon see a floor throughout the rest of the markets, as prices begin to recover.

4. BAD NEWS COULD BE PRICED IN.

I think most investors have already accepted that we could see 4 OR MORE rate hikes throughout 2022…we already KNOW inflation is really high…we already EXPECT consumer demand to slow down…so, none of this should come as much of a surprise.

By focusing on what you CAN control, and disregarding everything you can’t…you give yourself MUCH greater power to make the most of opportunities, LONG TERM, without concerning yourself about what the markets may or may not do in the short term.

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