The 2023 Recession Just Got...Cancelled?

Let's discuss the 2023 Recession, how the Federal Reserve might be able to perform a Soft Landing, what this means for home prices, and how the IRS may be changing Enjoy! Add me on InstagramGPStephan | GET MY WEEKLY EMAIL MARKET NEWSLETTER

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THE 2023 RECESSION:

As The Boston Globe Pointed Out, throughout the last 6 recessions that have been confirmed…there is an AVERAGE LAG TIME of 7.3 MONTHS between the time a recession takes place - and the time it’s actually announced. in the 44 years they’ve been operating, they have never ONCE had to rescind or change their declaration - which means, they’re extremely accurate - and as a result, the process takes almost a YEAR to compile. That's why: we only know about it…when it’s already over.

THE HOUSING MARKET:

Just recently, Goldman Sachs shared their thoughts that 4 US Cities could see a “2008-style housing crash” throughout 2023. As they say: San Jose, Austin, Phoenix, and San Diego “will likely see peak-to-trough declines of more than 25%….such declines would rival those seen around the country around a decade-and-a-half ago” - SIMPLY because: those were the areas which already saw some of THE MOST growth since 2020.

Obviously, that kind of price growth is completely unsustainable - and, with interest rates going up - we’re bound to see a rather substantial drop throughout some of the hottest markets. In fact, Goldman Sachs says that “Home prices are believed to have peaked in June of 2022,” which means - on a NATIONAL basis…we could see a decline of 10%, before growth begins to recover in 2024. On top of that, Morgan Stanley anticipates a 4% drop from stagnant demand, Wells Fargo seeing declines of 5.5%, and Interactive Brokers calling for more than 20%.

CONTROLLING RENTAL PRICES:

The White House just introduced: “The Renters Bill of Rights.”

Under this, The Federal Housing Finance Agency would examine limits on rent increases, and prevent tenants from being unfairly denied access to housing. In addition to that, lawmakers have called on the FTC to issue new regulations on excessive rent increases, enforce actions against price-gouging, and limit rent charged with properties that are financed with government backed mortgages.

However - unfortunately, studies have found that rent control does NOT help with housing affordability. In fact, a 1992 poll of the American Economic Association found that 93% of its members agreed that “a ceiling on rents reduces the quality and quantity of housing.”

On top of that, a Stanford study has argued that Rent Control actually has an ADVERSE affect on prices for renters and actually works AGAINST making housing more affordable.

-Rent controlled tenants were 20% more likely to stay in their unit.

-Renters were more likely to move elsewhere if they didn’t have the incentive of having their rent capped where they currently were living

-Landlords of rent controlled buildings were more likely to convert their buildings in such a way that it wasn’t rent controlled, reducing the amount of housing by 15%

-The loss of available housing drove up prices of rental units. It was found that a 6% decrease in housing supply led to a 7% increase in rental prices.

THE STOCK MARKET:

Michael Burry posted a rather ominous chart of the 2001 Dot Com bubble, showing that - the prior rebound was eerily similar to what we’re seeing today…before dropping another 30%…and, even though ANYTHING is possible, my guess is that we’re largely going to look to the FED throughout these next few months to determine whether or not the worst is behind us.

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