Why Home Prices Haven’t Crashed...Yet

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THE HOUSING REPORT FOR 2023:

Home Sales:

Year-over-year, home sales are down another 23.2% since April of 2022 - marking a nearly consistent monthly decline for over a year.

Months Supply Of Inventory:

If you’re in the market for a brand new construction, supply has somewhat declined - going from 8.4 months worth of inventory, a year ago - to now, just 7.6 months. For all other sales, though - TOTAL inventory at the end of April was up 7.2% from March, and 1% from a year ago.

Home Prices:

As TheWallStreetJournal reported, the national median home price fell 1.7% in April to $388,800 - which, was the largest decline since January of 2012. Black Knight Research pointed out, the housing market has essentially been cut in half, right down the middle, with the West Coast having seen a 10% drop, while the East Coast saw a 10% gain.

As of now, according to Blacknight Research, “14 of the 50 largest US markets have seen home prices fall by 6% or more” - and, if you’re curious which markets those are - the top is Austin, Texas with a 13.6% decline since March of 2022 - Seattle, Washington, with a 9.5% decline - San Fransisco with an 8.9% decline - Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania at 5.4% - and, New York, at 2.2%.

Now, in terms of which states are falling the fastest - Nevada is leading the way, at 4.8% - followed by Arizona, California, Utah, Idaho, DC, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Massachusetts. In fact, home prices fell throughout 31% of the United States…which, is the highest decline in a decade.

However, remember: not all markets are treated equally and, some locations are actually continuing to go higher. For example, Myrtle, Beach South Carolina is up 15.4% - Fayetteville, North Caroline is up 14.7% - followed by Fort Lauderdale, St Louise - Hollywood, FL - Boca Raton, Cleaveland, and Clearwater - which, are all at least up 10%.

All of this means that - even though parts of the country are falling, others are doing quite well, and are boosted by relatively low inventory. Because of that, homebuilder confidence is once-again hitting its highest level since 2022.

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