RECORD Corn and Soybean Yields Predicted

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🌾 StoneX US Crop Estimates

Yesterday, the well-followed private group, StoneX, released new US crop estimates based on a customer survey:

Corn Yield: 182.3 bpa (USDA: 181.0 bpa)

Corn Crop: 15.2 billion bushels (USDA: 15.1 billion bushels)

Soybean Yield: 52.6 bpa (USDA: 52.0 bpa)

Soybean Crop: 4.48 billion bushels (USDA: 4.43 billion bushels)

🗺️ See graphic below for the state-by-state breakdown.

📉 US Corn Export Sales

Last week, US corn export sales were poor, hitting a marketing-year low:

Net Corn Sales: 167,900mt (7 million bushels)

Comparison: -49% from the previous week, -60% from the prior 4-week average

Largest Buyer: Mexico

📈 Net soybean sales exceeded expectations:

Net Soybean Sales: 376,400mt (14 million bushels)

Comparison: Significantly up from the previous week and prior 4-week average

Largest Buyer: Germany

📊 Net wheat sales were near the lower end of expectations:

Net Wheat Sales: 286,600mt (11 million bushels)

Comparison: -7% from the previous week, -41% from the prior 4-week average

Largest Buyer: Indonesia

🗒️ See charts below.

🌱 USDA Flash Sale & Drought Monitor

The USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans on Thursday:

Sale to China: 132,000mt (5 million bushels) for 2024/2025 marketing year

Year-to-Date: China has made two flash sales totaling 264,000mt (10 million bushels)

The weekly drought monitor data indicated limited rainfall across the Corn Belt, worsening drought conditions:

Drought Impact:

Corn: 5%

Soybeans: 5%

Winter Wheat: 32%

Spring Wheat: 16%

Cattle: 15%

🗺️ See USDA's drought PDF HERE.

🐄 Cattle Prices & Market Concerns

Live and feeder cattle prices fell sharply due to fund selling, weakening consumer demand, and economic concerns:

September Feeder Cattle: -2.1%

October Live Cattle: -1.7%

Boxed Beef: Choice cutout fell $2/cwt to $312.79/cwt

Despite the futures decline, cash cattle prices have been steady.

📉 Stock Market & Economic Indicators

Recession fears sent the stock market tumbling:

Dow Jones: -1.2%

S&P 500: -1.4%

Nasdaq: -2.3%

10-Year Treasury Yield: Fell below 4% for the first time since February

Economic data showed:

Jobless Claims: Highest level in eleven months

US Manufacturing Activity: Contracted last month, hitting an eight-month low

💬 Stay informed! Don't forget to subscribe and share your thoughts in the comments below. Keeping up with these updates is crucial for staying ahead in the market! 📊📉