Scariest Soybean Chart Ever
September 13, 2024
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🌽📊 USDA Boosts US Corn Estimate, Global Grain Updates & Drought Concerns | Black Sea Incident & Export Sales
Hey, everyone! 👋 Today we’re diving into the latest updates from the USDA's revised corn estimates, troubling news from the Black Sea, Brazil’s soybean concerns, and export sales data. Plus, we’ll look at the growing drought across US agriculture. Let’s get started! 🚀👇
🌾 USDA Raises Corn Yield Estimate
Big news from the USDA! Yesterday, they increased their estimate of the US corn crop:
Yield was raised to 183.6bpa, up slightly from 183.1bpa.
Total crop is now pegged at 15.2 billion bushels, making it the second-largest on record, just behind last year! 📈
Despite the increase, old crop carryout was reduced by 55 million bushels due to stronger demand, so the balance sheet stayed flat.
The Dec24 corn contract managed to stay above $4/bu despite some pressure.
🔗 View USDA Executive Briefing slides here
🚢 Russian Missile Hits Grain Ship in Black Sea
Serious developments on Thursday! A Russian missile allegedly struck a grain vessel in the Black Sea, marking the first attack on a civilian ship transporting grain since the war began in February 2022. Here’s what happened:
The ship, from Saint Kitts and Nevis, was carrying Ukrainian grain to Egypt.
The attack occurred in international waters near Romania.
Thankfully, there were no casualties, and the ship continued its voyage. 🚢💥
Surprisingly, the wheat market didn’t react to the news.
🌱 Brazil’s Soybean Concerns
The situation is heating up in Brazil—literally. 🔥 Soil moisture levels in key soybean regions are at their lowest in 30 years:
The states of Mato Grosso and Parana, responsible for 40% of Brazil’s soybean output last season, are facing serious drought conditions. 🌵
Over the next 10 days, dry conditions and above-normal temperatures are expected.
Relief may come with rain forecasted for late September, but significant rainfall may not return until mid-October. 🌧️
💧 US Drought Conditions Worsen
The USDA’s latest drought monitor shows that drought is tightening its grip across the Corn Belt:
Hot, dry weather is affecting the southern and eastern Corn Belt, leading to signs of deeper dryness. 🌞
High Plains conditions are unchanged, but the rest of the Corn Belt isn’t so lucky.
🔢 US Drought Conditions:
Corn: 18% affected
Soybeans: 26%
Winter Wheat: 57%
Spring Wheat: 22%
Cattle: 29%
🔗 See USDA's drought PDF here
📉 US Crop Export Sales: Mixed Results
US export sales took a hit for corn, but there were some bright spots for soybeans and wheat. Here’s the breakdown:
Corn export sales were below expectations, totaling 666,500mt (26 million bushels), down 63% from the prior week. Mexico was the largest buyer.
Soybean sales were strong, hitting 1.5mmt (54 million bushels), with China leading the way. 📊
Wheat sales were 474,900mt (17 million bushels), up 40% from last week, with Taiwan as the top buyer.
🔥 Flash Sale of Corn!
More good news on the export front! The USDA reported a flash sale of 118,626mt (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This brings total new crop corn commitments to the 5th best in the last 10 years! 🌽🚀
👇 Stay Updated!
Make sure to subscribe and stay tuned for more updates on global grain markets, US crop data, and weather impacts. Let me know in the comments: what do you think about the recent USDA corn estimate? 💬
#USDAReport #BlackSeaIncident #DroughtMonitor #SoybeanDrought #CornExportSales #AgNews #FlashSaleCorn
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