Why Will the New Crop US Corn Carryout Fall Below 2bil Bushels?
October 10, 2024
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10:54Now PlayingWhy Will the New Crop US Corn Carryout Fall Below 2bil Bushels?
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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
🌾 Upcoming USDA Report
Get ready! The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday morning. Traders are expecting minimal changes to this year's US corn and soybean production estimates. However, there’s talk of a potential reduction in the new crop US corn carryout estimate due to lighter-than-expected September 1st stocks. Some traders are speculating upward adjustments to the demand side of the corn balance sheet, thanks to strong export and ethanol data. Keep an eye out for possible changes to global supply and demand balances as well! 📈
🌿 Ethanol Production on the Rise
US ethanol production saw a boost last week, hitting 1.04 million barrels per day—up 2.3% week-over-week and 2.9% compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 22.2 million barrels, down from the previous week but still showing a year-over-year increase. Implied gasoline demand surged, with a 13% increase from last week and 20% from the same week last year. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up 8.4% compared to the same period last year. 🚗💨
🚜 John Deere's Stock Steady Despite Tariff Threats
John Deere’s stock remains strong, even in the face of tariff threats from Donald Trump, who plans to impose a 200% tariff on machinery sold into the US if Deere moves production to Mexico. Despite the political drama, Deere's stock hit a 52-week high! Analysts believe traders are focusing on the market realities rather than political rhetoric. It seems there’s a 70% chance that tariffs will be implemented regardless of who wins the election! 📈💪
🌧️ Brazil's Soybean Country Receives Scattered Showers
Scattered showers moved across Brazil's soybean regions overnight! The weather models are having a bit of a disagreement on rainfall amounts for the next 5-10 days; the Euro model is notably wetter than the GFS model. Both models, however, suggest widespread rainfall during the 5-10 day period, potentially benefiting soybean planting. 🌧️🇧🇷
🌽 Flash Sale of Corn Reported
USDA reported a flash sale of 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. US corn export commitments are currently the fifth best in the last ten years—looking good out there! 📦
📊 CPI Report Ahead
Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show further moderation in consumer prices, with a projected increase of 0.1% in September and a year-over-year increase of 2.3%. This report could be a significant market mover, influencing the Federal Reserve's next moves on interest rate cuts. The market is currently pricing in an 84% chance of a 0.25% rate cut in November. 📉
Stay tuned for more updates, and let’s keep the momentum going! 🌱✨
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