"Both Candidates are Bad for Trade" (Soybeans, China)

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🌍📈 Trade Concerns, USDA Report, and Global Wheat Supply Woes | US Export Sales and Drought Monitor Updates

Hey everyone! 👋 Today we’re covering major updates from the US Chamber of Commerce's trade concerns, upcoming USDA reports, global wheat production issues, and US export sales. We’ll also dive into the worsening drought conditions and mixed US economic data. Let’s get started! 🚀👇

🌍 US Chamber of Commerce: Trump and Harris Could Harm Trade

The US Chamber of Commerce voiced concerns that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris would be detrimental for US trade:

Trump’s planned tariffs: A 60% tariff on Chinese imports and 10% on all other imports would raise inflation and hurt US companies that rely on imported components.

Harris’ stance on trade: Harris has been anti-trade in the past, voting against free trade deals due to their lack of attention to climate change. She argues these agreements lead to lost US manufacturing jobs, despite opening global markets for US goods.

🌾 US Export Sales Mostly As Expected

Last week’s US export sales data came in largely as expected:

Corn sales: 1.2mmt (48 million bushels), down 27% from the prior week. Unknown destinations were the largest buyer.

Soybean sales: 1.3mmt (46 million bushels), down 12% week-over-week, with China as the largest buyer.

Wheat sales: 443,600mt (16 million bushels), down 2% from last week but up 31% from the 4-week average, with Mexico as the top buyer. 📉

🌱 USDA Crop Production and WASDE Report Coming

The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11:00 AM CST. Here's what traders are watching:

Corn: A potential reduction in US corn carryout due to lower-than-expected September 1st stocks. Strong export and ethanol data could lead to upward adjustments in demand.

Soybeans: Minimal changes are expected in production estimates.

Global balance sheets: Adjustments to both supply and demand are possible given current global conditions.

🌾 Global Wheat Production Declines

Global wheat production is expected to decline this season due to drought conditions in major producing countries like Russia, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and the US:

Russian attacks on grain ships in the Black Sea are further exacerbating supply concerns, driving Chicago wheat futures to their highest levels in four months.

Australia and Canada are holding off on sales, hoping prices will climb even higher.

The USDA projects world wheat ending stocks to fall to a nine-year low of 257.2mmt this season. 🌍

💧 US Drought Monitor Update

The USDA’s latest drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt:

Corn: 49% of the crop is experiencing drought conditions.

Soybeans: 43% impacted by drought.

Winter wheat: 47% affected, as well as 29% of spring wheat.

Cattle: 43% of cattle areas are facing drought.

However, Kentucky saw improvements due to the lasting impacts of Hurricane Helene, while the High Plains continue to struggle with warmer-than-average temperatures and little to no rainfall. 🌾

🔗 See USDA's drought PDF here

📊 US Economic Data: A Mixed Bag

Thursday’s economic data revealed both positive and negative trends:

CPI: Consumer prices rose 0.2% for the month, exceeding expectations of a 0.1% increase. Year-over-year inflation reached 2.4%, the lowest since February 2021.

Jobless claims: Weekly claims hit a 14-month high at 258,000, driven by the impacts of Hurricane Helene and the Boeing workers strike.

👇 Stay Updated!

Be sure to subscribe for more updates on global ag markets, US economic news, and trade policy developments! Comment below with your thoughts—how do you think the upcoming USDA report will impact the markets? 💬

#TradeConcerns #USDAReport #WheatProduction #USExportSales #DroughtMonitor #CPIData #AgNews