Most Bearish Soybean Situation EVER (Literally)

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🌽 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report

The USDA released its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday, and there were no major surprises! 🎉 Here are the highlights:

Corn: The national yield estimate was increased to 183.8 bushels per acre (bpa), while acreage remained unchanged. 🌽

Soybeans: The national yield estimate decreased to 53.1 bpa, with acreage also unchanged. 🫘

Wheat: The carryout estimate was reduced due to lower yields, lower beginning stocks, and increased feed usage. 📉

💵 China's Finance Minister Briefing

China’s Finance Minister held a briefing over the weekend, but it lacked specific details about new stimulus measures. Analysts had hoped for up to $283 billion in new fiscal stimulus, but without specifics, investor concerns are likely to grow, especially following slower-than-expected consumer price increases in September. 📉🤔

🛍️ "The Funds" Trim Net Short Positions

Good news! "The Funds" have drastically reduced their net short positions in the corn and soybean markets. As of October 8:

Corn: Short positions are down to 35k contracts from a record 356k in July. 📉

Soybeans: Funds were net buyers of 13k contracts, reducing their short position to 19k contracts from a peak of 183k in July. 🛒

However, funds were net sellers of 7k contracts of SRW wheat last week. 📊

🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Planting Lagging

Brazilian soybean planting is lagging behind last year, with 9.3% of the expected area planted compared to 17.4% at the same time last year. Hot and dry conditions have been a hurdle, but the forecast is looking favorable for rainfall in the coming weeks! ☔🌾 USDA estimates this season's Brazilian soybean crop at 169 million metric tons (mmt).

🌾 Russia's Wheat Export Limits

Russia is trying to limit wheat exports with a proposed price floor and an increase in its export duty by 41%. This move is aimed at curbing exports as domestic inflation soars. Russia recently lowered its estimate for this season's wheat crop to 130 mmt due to unfavorable growing conditions. 📉🚫

🌊 Environmental Concerns in Tampa Bay

Hazardous water from a fertilizer waste facility overflowed into Tampa Bay last week due to excessive rainfall during Hurricane Milton. The overflow involved more than 17,500 gallons of water, but Mosaic reports that the water quality impacts are expected to be minimal. 🌊⚠️

📦 Flash Sales Reported

USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday:

Soybeans: 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. 🛳️

Corn: 577,928 mt (23 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. 🌽

Stay tuned for more updates, and let's keep the momentum going! 🚀✨