Have Wheat Futures Finally Found a Bottom??

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🌾 Russia’s winter crops are facing significant challenges, with over 37% in poor condition—a record high—and only 31% rated as good, the lowest in 23 years. Due to frosts ❄️ and drought 🌞, some winter crops will need to be replaced with spring crops 🌱. Despite the poor conditions, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister stated the situation isn’t critical. However, the wheat harvest 🍞 is expected to decline by 11% this year.

🌱 Corteva is looking to expand its presence in Brazil's genetically modified (GM) soybean seed 🌾 market, aiming for 20–30% market share with its Enlist E3 seeds by 2030. Although the seeds currently hold a negligible share in Brazil, they dominate nearly two-thirds of the US market 🇺🇸 since their 2019 launch. Challenges in Brazil include competition with Bayer ⚔️ and economic struggles 💸 affecting farmers’ ability to adopt new technologies. Year-to-date, Corteva’s shares 📈 have risen by 29%.

📊 US export sales of soybeans, while down 7% from the previous week, reached 2.3mmt (85M bushels), near the upper range of expectations. China 🇨🇳 was the largest buyer. Corn 🌽 exports exceeded forecasts at 1.7mmt (68M bushels), up 63% from the prior week, with Mexico 🇲🇽 as the largest buyer. Wheat 🌾 sales were 378,200mt (14M bushels), led by Mexican purchases.

🌨️ USDA drought data shows improved conditions in parts of the Corn Belt 🌽, including Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, due to snowfall. Slight improvements were also noted in northwest Minnesota, southeast Missouri, and eastern North Dakota, but the High Plains 🌾 saw no significant changes. Drought remains widespread, affecting 54% of corn, 49% of soybeans, and 40% of cattle areas 🐄.

🛒 The USDA reported a flash sale of 136,000mt (5M bushels) of soybeans to China 🇨🇳 for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Accumulated soybean sales are up 12% compared to the same period last year, signaling robust demand 📈.

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