US Farmers Sell TONS of Old Crop Corn: Right or Wrong??
January 17, 2025
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📉 US Farmer Selling Increases Amid Economic Pressures 🚜
According to Reuters, US farmers have increased their selling of corn and soybeans this week, following the USDA's report that reduced the 2024 corn and soybean production estimates. Despite the recent rally in grain markets, farmers continue to face low profits and rising input costs. Farm income has fallen by nearly 23% since 2022, raising concerns about the year ahead. Farmers are also wary of the tariff proposals from President-elect Donald Trump, which could further strain the agricultural economy. The situation is definitely one to watch as farmers brace for a potentially tough season 🌾💸.
🌱 Soybean Futures Fall Despite Tighter US Supply 🛑
Soybean futures dropped sharply on Thursday, with the Mar25 contract losing 25 cents per bushel 🌾. While the US supply and demand situation has tightened, global soybean supply remains burdensome, and recent improvements in the weather forecast for southern Brazil and Argentina may have triggered the selling. The global market's supply concerns persist, but farmers and traders alike will be watching the weather patterns closely as these two key regions experience different growing conditions 📉.
🌍 Brazil's Soybean Crop Forecast Slightly Raised 📈
Agroconsult has slightly raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 172.4mmt, a small increase from its previous estimate of 172.2mmt 🌱. This increase is attributed to ideal weather and favorable planting conditions in most areas of Brazil. However, excessive rainfall in central Brazil and dry conditions in southern Brazil could affect harvest and yields. Despite these concerns, Brazil’s overall soybean production is set to remain strong, with record acreage expected 🌾.
💼 Trump’s Treasury Nominee Defends Tariff Plans 💰
During his confirmation hearing, Scott Bessent, President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, defended the tariff proposals, suggesting they would be implemented gradually over the coming months 📊. Bessent emphasized that tariffs would help address unfair trade practices and geopolitical issues, despite concerns from some senators about their potential impact on inflation. The Senate is expected to confirm Bessent soon, and his stance signals a continued focus on trade policy under Trump’s leadership 📉.
📦 US Export Sales Show Mixed Results 📉📈
US export sales showed improvements in corn and wheat but remained weak for soybeans. Here’s a quick summary:
Corn sales reached 1mmt (40 million bushels), surpassing expectations, with Japan as the largest buyer 🇯🇵.
Soybean sales were 569,100mt (21 million bushels), slightly up from the previous week but down 27% from the 4-week average 🌾. China was the largest buyer 🇨🇳.
Wheat sales reached 513,400mt (19 million bushels), exceeding expectations, with South Korea as the largest buyer 🇰🇷.
Despite the sales, US soybeans are becoming less competitive globally, with Brazilian offers for February forward trade coming in at $1/bushel cheaper than US prices 💲.
🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Shows Limited Improvement 🚨
The USDA released its weekly drought monitor, showing minimal precipitation across the Corn Belt and High Plains. However, drought conditions improved slightly in eastern Ohio, northern Indiana, and northeast Missouri, while worsening in southwest Nebraska 🌾🌧️. Here’s a breakdown of the areas still affected:
Corn: 42% affected 🌽
Soybeans: 34% affected 🌱
Winter Wheat: 22% affected 🌾
Spring Wheat: 33% affected 🌾
Cattle: 32% affected 🐄
📦 Flash Sales of Soybeans and Corn 📊
In another round of flash sales, US exporters sold:
132,000mt of soybeans (5 million bushels) to China 🇨🇳 for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
135,000mt of corn (5 million bushels) to Taiwan 🇹🇼 for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
These sales contribute to ongoing export strength but highlight the ongoing competition from Brazil 🌱.
🔔 Stay Informed! Subscribe for Updates 📲
For all the latest updates on market conditions, tariff impacts, crop forecasts, and more, don't forget to subscribe! What do you think about the impact of US export sales and Brazilian crop forecasts on the market? Drop your thoughts below! 🌾💬
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