Grain Markets and Other Stuff
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Corn Trades 16-Month Highs + DOGE Tackles Checkoff Programs
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February 19, 2025
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CME Corn Futures Surge 🚀
CME corn futures hit their best trade since October 2023, with the Mar25 contract breaking the $5 per bushel mark. US export sales remain a key factor, running 28% ahead of last year’s pace, surpassing USDA's projected 7% increase. "The funds" remain active buyers, holding a net long of 360k contracts. Wheat futures also rose, supported by Black Sea headlines and weather concerns in the US and Russia. Soybean futures closed higher as well. 🌽📈
DOGE Evaluates Agricultural Checkoff Programs 💡
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is reviewing USDA’s 22 checkoff programs as part of a broader effort to reduce federal spending. This review could potentially lead to restructuring or regular voting by producers on whether these programs should continue. The checkoff programs, designed for marketing, research, and education, have faced criticism over transparency and fairness. 🧐
January Soybean Crush Data Released 📊
NOPA's January soybean crush data showed a slight decline from December’s all-time high but was still the second-largest on record for the month. The crush totaled 200.4 million bushels, up 7.9% from last year. Soybean oil stocks climbed to a six-month high of 1.27 billion pounds, though they fell short of trade estimates. 🌱
Trump’s Proposed Tariffs on Automobiles, Semiconductors, and Pharmaceuticals 💰
President Trump announced plans to implement 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, with an increase over the next year. The specifics are expected by April, but it's unclear whether the tariffs will target specific countries or all imports. This would have significant effects on U.S. vehicle imports, which make up about half of all vehicle sales in the country. 🚗💥
EU to Ban Pesticide-Treated Crop Imports 🚫
The European Union plans to implement a ban on imports of crops treated with pesticides that are prohibited in Europe for health and environmental reasons. This policy could impact U.S. soybean exports, as the EU is a key buyer of U.S. agricultural products. President Trump has expressed concern, suggesting that such restrictions would harm European markets. 🌍🌾
US Corn Shipments Exceed Expectations 📦
US corn shipments for the week ending February 13 totaled 1.6mmt (63 million bushels), up 19% from the prior week and 53% higher than last year. However, soybean and wheat shipments were below expectations, with soybean exports down 34% and wheat shipments down 56%. 🌾🚢
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