Monday's USDA Report: Super Bearish or Already Discounted??

Joe's Premium Subscription

Apple Podcasts

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

📊 USDA Report Monday + Big Trade News! 🌍🌽

📅 Mark your calendar! USDA drops its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Monday at 11am CST. We'll get our first look at 25/26 corn & soybean balance sheets, with trend yields and March acreage in focus. 📉 Early expectations suggest bearish new crop corn vs. the current year. Pre-report estimates 👇

🇺🇸🇬🇧 US–UK Strike Ag Deal!

The UK will eliminate its 19% ethanol tariff, giving a major boost to the US ethanol industry 🚀 ($535M in exports last year). The deal also expands beef trade, but UK food safety rules will still apply. For context: the UK = 🇬🇧 68 million people, with 36 lbs of beef consumption per person vs. 59 lbs in the US. 🍖📉

📈 Trump Eyes China Tariff Cuts

President Trump expressed hope for progress in this weekend’s trade talks with China 🇨🇳. A tariff reduction (currently at 145%) could be on the table. Markets responded: S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.1% 💹

🌾 Drought Monitor Highlights

Most of the Corn Belt is drought-free, but dryness is growing in parts of MO, IL, IN & the High Plains. Here’s the USDA breakdown:

Corn: 20%

Soybeans: 15%

Winter Wheat: 22%

Spring Wheat: 37%

Cattle Areas: 30%

📄 See full drought PDF below.

🚢 Export Sales Recap

Corn: 1.7mmt – 🌽 65M bu (+64% WoW) – Japan leads

Soybeans: 377k mt – 🫘 14M bu – Mexico leads

Wheat: 70k mt – 🌾 3M bu – Mexico leads

🌎 China Turns to Argentina

China signed a $900M non-binding grain deal with 🇦🇷 Argentina, aiming to sidestep Trump’s tariffs. Expect rising Argentine corn & soybean shipments to China.

📢 Flash Sales!

Mexico: 205k mt corn (2024/25 & 2025/26)

Unknown Dest.: 115k mt corn (2024/25)

Pakistan: 225k mt soybeans (largest since June 2022) 🛳️

👇 See all charts, drought maps, and pre-report estimates below!

📬 Subscribe for more updates & leave your thoughts in the comments!