Soybeans & Corn Rally on Biofuel Rumors + USDA is Probably Overestimating the Corn Crop
August 22, 2025
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17:05USDA Too Optimistic on Ohio?? Monster Crops in South Dakota (Crop Tour)
20:51Now PlayingSoybeans & Corn Rally on Biofuel Rumors + USDA is Probably Overestimating the Corn Crop
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🌽🚜 Grain Market Update: Biofuel Battles, Record Crops & Export Surprises! 🌎📈
🔥 Big EPA Decision Coming Today
The EPA is expected to rule on 195 small refinery exemption (SRE) requests this afternoon. Traders are buzzing after yesterday’s rally in corn, soybeans, and soybean oil—many believe someone knows something ahead of the news. A supplemental rule could also drop next week to decide if big refiners must reallocate exempted gallons, a move farm groups strongly support and oil refiners strongly oppose. 💥⚖️
🌱 Pro Farmer Crop Tour – Minnesota & Iowa Results
Scouts found record-breaking crops in both states:
🌽 Minnesota corn pegged at 199.6 bpa, smashing the old record & up 23% from last year!
🌱 Minnesota soybeans also set a new all-time pod count record.
🌽 Iowa corn estimated at 198.4 bpa, with soybeans also setting a tour record.
Final national results from the tour are expected today. 📊
🚢 Export Sales – Big Corn Business
US corn exports were 🔥 last week at 2.9 mmt (113 mil bushels), a massive 40% jump from the week prior. Unknown destinations led the charge. Soybean sales were also strong at 1.1 mmt, though China remains absent. Wheat sales lagged, with Mexico as the top buyer.
🌦️ Drought Monitor Update
Dry weather tightened conditions across the Eastern Corn Belt (Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri). North Dakota improved, while Kansas & Oklahoma worsened slightly.
Current US drought exposure:
🌽 Corn – 5%
🌱 Soybeans – 9%
🌾 Winter Wheat – 31%
🌾 Spring Wheat – 14%
🐄 Cattle – 15%
🏛️ USDA News
The USDA plans to close the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, a move critics warn could disrupt vital research. Meanwhile, NASS, the agency behind crop estimates, faces budget cuts and staffing shortages, raising questions about future reporting accuracy.
📊 Charts & graphics below for corn, soybeans, soybean oil, exports, and drought!
👉 Don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and drop a comment 💬 with your thoughts on today’s EPA ruling and crop tour results!
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