USDA Sounds the Alarm: Farm Income Crashing, Government Payments Soaring

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🌾 Farm Economy & Receipts

USDA projects US crop receipts to decline in 2025, led by weaker returns for soybeans, corn, and wheat. Total receipts are expected at $236.6B, down 2.5% from 2024. Meanwhile, direct government payments are set to surge 300% to $40.5B. On the livestock side, cattle receipts are forecast up nearly 16%, while hogs climb almost 10%.

🌍 Trump vs. China, Russia & North Korea

President Trump accused China of conspiring with Russia and North Korea following their high-profile military parade in Beijing. Xi, Putin, and Kim stood together at the event, but Trump downplayed the threat—reminding supporters that “China needs us more than we need them.”

📉 Corn & Soybeans Slide

Corn and soybean futures pulled back midweek after recent rallies. Dec25 corn closed at $4.18, down 5 cents, while Nov25 soybeans slipped nearly 10 cents to $10.32. Losses came despite USDA reporting weaker crop condition ratings.

💻 Crypto & Prediction Markets

Polymarket scored a major win with CFTC approval to legally operate in the US. The no-action letter exempts the platform from certain costly reporting requirements, clearing the way for more growth in prediction markets.

🛢️ Shell Cancels Biofuels Project

Shell announced it will not restart construction of its massive Rotterdam biofuels facility, citing weak demand and global oversupply. This follows similar moves by BP and even Southwest Airlines, raising questions about the future of SAF and corn ethanol’s role in aviation fuel.

🚢 Soybean Meal Flash Sale

US exporters sold 185,000mt of soybean cake & meal to the Philippines. Total flash sales for this marketing year now stand at 455,000mt.

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