More Direct Farm Payments are Coming - How Much?? $10Bil?? $15Bil?? Who Benefits?
September 16, 2025
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15:27Now PlayingMore Direct Farm Payments are Coming - How Much?? $10Bil?? $15Bil?? Who Benefits?
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š¾ Welcome back! Today weāre covering fresh updates on farm aid, trade talks, crop conditions, and global markets.
š° USDA Aid & Farm Support
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the agency is weighing another round of farmer payments this fall. Rising input costs, weak markets, and stalled trade talks with China are driving the conversation. Past programs (MFP & ECAP) totaled more than $30B combined, and this round could land near $10Bāor higher.
š Trade & China Update
President Trump will speak with President Xi on Friday after trade meetings in Madrid. While talks were āvery good,ā China has yet to book any US soybeans this marketing year. Trump may lean on direct payments to farmers unless a favorable deal emerges.
š± Brazil Planting & Production
Brazilian farmers are just starting soybean plantingā0.12% complete vs. 0.06% last year. AgRural projects a record 176.7mmt soybean crop, while USDA pegs corn at 131mmt. Dry weather could slow progress.
š½ US Crop Progress & Conditions
Corn: 67% G/E rating (highest since 2018 for the week), 7% harvested.
Soybeans: 63% G/E, 5% harvestedāslightly behind LY but ahead of avg.
Wheat: Winter wheat planting 11% (vs. 13% avg), spring wheat harvest 94%.
š Crush & Processing
NOPA August crush: 189.81M buārecord for August, +20% YoY, above trade expectations. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.245B lbs, lowest since Dec 2024.
š Tyson & Corn Syrup
Tyson will phase out high-fructose corn syrup, sucralose, and dyes by year-end under the āMake America Healthy Againā initiative. Corn syrup accounts for ~3% of US corn demand. One study suggests Tysonās feed needs cover 10M acres of corn & soy.
š¢ Exports & Sales
US corn shipments: 1.5mmt (60M bu), +167% YoY. Soybeans: 804k mt (30M bu), +70% YoY. Wheat: 755k mt (28M bu), +28% YoY. Plus, USDA announced a flash sale of 6M bu corn to unknown buyers.
š Stay tuned, drop your thoughts in the comments, and donāt forget to subscribe for the latest ag market insights!
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