Trump/Xi, Tariff Revenue for Farmer Bailout, H-1B Fees
September 22, 2025
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12:21Now PlayingTrump/Xi, Tariff Revenue for Farmer Bailout, H-1B Fees
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🌎 Trump & Xi Set to Meet
President Trump will meet with Xi Jinping on October 31 in South Korea after a two-hour call on Friday. The two leaders discussed trade, fentanyl, and TikTok. Trump called the talks “productive” and plans to visit China early next year. Xi will visit the US later. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic on a trade deal. However, no mention of soybeans hurt US prices Friday as China has yet to buy any beans this marketing year.
💰 Farm Aid on the Table
The administration may use tariff revenue to fund a new bailout for US farmers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins suggested an announcement could come soon. Direct government payments are already expected to reach a five-year high near $41B. The new package could resemble Trump’s $23B farm aid program from 2019.
🛂 Immigration Overhaul
Trump unveiled a sweeping immigration plan, including a $100,000 annual fee for new H-1B visas (up from ~$5,250). Renewals are not affected. The move is meant to encourage hiring of US workers, but critics warn it could hurt smaller firms and AI competitiveness. A new “gold card” residency program will also cost $1M per individual or $2M per business sponsor. Trump claims the measures will generate “hundreds of billions” to reduce debt. This could be significant for farmers relying on H-1B labor.
🌽 Crop Outlook Shifts
S&P Global projects corn acres down 4.3% next year to 94.5M, while soybean acres rise 3.6% to 84M. Wheat acres are expected at 44.6M, down 1.8%. Despite S&P’s view, farm budgets and the corn/soybean ratio currently still favor corn. Ag View Solutions estimates 2026 costs: corn at $4.61/bu vs. a $4.60 Dec26 board price; soybeans at $11.66/bu vs. a $10.66 Nov26 price.
🇨🇳 China’s Soybean Appetite
China imported a record 10.5mmt of soybeans in August, 85% from Brazil. US soybean exports to China are up 31% YTD, but traders think China is mostly uncovered for Nov–Jan, the key US window. With China using ~11mmt/month, the question is whether they’ll rely on Brazil or risk drawing down stocks.
📊 Money Flow & Sales
CFTC data shows funds trimmed net shorts:
Corn: net short 81k (smallest since May)
Soybeans: net buyers of 14k
SRW wheat: net buyers of 7k
USDA also confirmed a flash sale of 206,460mt corn to unknown buyers. Accumulated sales are up 68% vs. last year.
🐂 Cattle on Feed
As of Sept 1:
11.1M head on feed (99% of year ago)
Placements: 1.8M (below expectations, -10% y/y)
Marketings: 1.6M (-14% y/y)
With the cow herd at a 70-year low and no Mexican imports, supplies remain tight—another bullish factor.
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