Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Grain Markets and Other Stuff
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Is China Buying US Soybeans and Wheat while the Govt is Shut Down??

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October 24, 2025

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🌱 Soybeans & Corn

Soybean and corn futures advanced on Thursday. The Nov25 soybean contract rose 10¢ to about $10.45/bu, its highest level in more than a month. Support came from surging oil prices, optimism over a potential US–China trade deal, and strong crush margins.

The Dec25 corn contract gained 5¢ to $4.28/bu, boosted by strong export demand, firmer basis bids, and limited farmer selling. Rumors swirled of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and wheat — US beans remain 64¢ cheaper than Brazil’s on a global basis.

📊 See charts below.

🌏 Trump–Xi Trade Talks

President Trump and President Xi will meet next Thursday in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC Summit. The talks follow Trump’s recent threat to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods after Beijing’s new rare earth restrictions.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is meeting with Chinese negotiators in Malaysia this weekend to prepare the groundwork.

🛢️ Oil & Sanctions

The US blacklisted two Russian oil firms, pressuring China to curb Russian crude imports — which make up roughly 20% of its supply. Companies that ignore sanctions risk losing access to global financial systems.

Oil prices jumped 5.6%, with WTI crude at $61.75/bbl.

📈 See crude oil charts below.

🥩 Argentine Beef Imports

The US will quadruple beef imports from Argentina, raising the tariff quota to 80,000mt (176M lbs). Critics say it hurts US ranchers and won’t meaningfully lower prices — the increase equals just 0.8% of annual consumption.

🇺🇸 US beef consumption ≈ 28.6B lbs

🇦🇷 Annual beef imports ≈ 5B+ lbs

📊 See Live & Feeder cattle charts below.

🐄 US–Mexico Border Talks

Talks resume next week to reopen the border for Mexican feeder cattle. The closure since May, due to a New World screwworm outbreak, has reduced US feedlot placements by ~500,000 head over three months.

🌤️ US Drought Update (USDA Monitor)

Drought conditions were mostly steady last week.

✅ Improvement: Southern IL, Western KY

❌ Worsening: NE Iowa, Eastern IL, Central OK

📄 See USDA PDF linked below.

US Areas Experiencing Drought

🌽 Corn – 32%

🌱 Soybeans – 39%

🌾 Winter Wheat – 43%

🌾 Spring Wheat – 16%

🐄 Cattle – 27%

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Guests & Subjects Covered

Corn SoybeanThursday The NovThe DecPresident XiSouth KoreaAPEC Summit TheTreasury Secretary Scott BessentSanctions The US

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Is China Buying US Soybeans and Wheat while the Govt is Shut Down?? · Grain Markets and Other Stuff · Sentinel