China Buys US Soybeans...Then Switches Back to Brazil
November 4, 2025
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14:50Now PlayingChina Buys US Soybeans...Then Switches Back to Brazil
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🌎 China’s Soybean Shuffle
China booked 20 Brazilian soybean cargoes — half for December, the rest March–July — as Brazil undercuts US Gulf prices again.
Traders still expect US purchases under the truce, but the market wants official tariff news from Beijing.
US futures rallied anyway — Jan26 +19¢ to $11.34, the highest since July.
Rumor mill says more US deals behind closed doors 👀
🚢 Export Check: Soybeans Weak, Corn Hot
US soybean inspections: 965K mt — down hard from last week and last year 😬
China still absent.
Corn? 🔥 Big week — 1.7mmt, up sharply vs. last year.
Wheat also stronger YoY.
🇨🇳 China Looks at US Wheat Again
China sniffing around SRW/HRW cargoes for Dec–Feb.
Traders call it goodwill buying more than economics.
Wheat futures pop — Dec25 closes near $5.44, best in 3 months.
🌱 Brazil Planting Lags
Heat + dryness slowing planting: 47% vs 54% last year.
Some replant risk.
StoneX tweaks the outlook:
• Beans slightly higher at 178.9mmt
• Second corn crop cut to 107mmt
🇺🇸 US Harvest Almost Wrapped
Analysts peg harvest at:
• Corn 83% (vs 91% last year)
• Soybeans 91% (vs 94%)
Dry weather helped.
Still no crop progress reports during the shutdown — but WASDE/Prod still coming Nov 14.
📊 StoneX US Yield Update
• Corn: 186 bpa — slight bump
• Beans: 53.6 bpa — trimmed
US production essentially steady vs last month.
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