Trump Confirms $12bil Farm Aid Package: What Do We Know??

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🚜 Farm Aid & Tractor Prices

President Trump announced a $12 billion farm aid package on Monday and urged ag equipment makers to lower tractor prices — blaming environmental regulations for higher costs. The administration plans to lift some of those rules to reduce equipment expenses.

• $11B → one-time payments to row-crop farmers under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program

• $1B → specialty crops

• Eligibility: AGI below $900k for 2022–24 tax years

• Acreage reporting due by Dec 19 — 5pm ET

• Payments expected by Feb 28, 2026

FBA looks much more like ECAP than the old MFP. Rates aren’t out yet — but I included last year’s ECAP rate sheet below for reference.

Covered crops: Barley, Chickpeas, Corn, Cotton, Lentils, Oats, Peanuts, Peas, Rice, Sorghum, Soybeans, Wheat, Canola, Crambe, Flax, Mustard, Rapeseed, Safflower, Sesame & Sunflower.

📊 USDA Crop Production Report — Today 11:00am CST

Traders expect minimal changes to US ending stocks:

• Corn & wheat → slight declines

• Soybeans → modest increase

Global: slightly more beans & wheat, slightly fewer corn stocks.

I’ll post a USDA Snapshot video within 20 minutes of release.

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook

AgRural projects:

• Corn: 135.3mmt (↓ from 141.1mmt record last year)

• Soybeans: 178.5mmt (unchanged)

Dry southern weather remains a risk to yields.

The US crop is ~3.2× bigger than Brazil’s upcoming corn crop — but Brazil will export ~33% of production vs the US at 18–19%. 📦

(See producer/exporter charts below)

🇨🇳 Flash Sale to China

Another soybean flash sale Monday:

• 132,000mt (5 mil bu) → China for 25/26 delivery

Since late October, China has now booked 2.85mmt (105 mil bu) via flash sales.

(Updated China Purchase Tracker below)

🚢 Export Inspections

Week ending Dec 4:

• Soybeans: 1mmt — +9% vs wk prior but -41% vs last year

• Corn: 1.5mmt — above expectations, +36% vs last year

• Wheat: 393kmt — +59% vs last year

China finally showed up — 119,895mt beans inspected at the Gulf.

PNW still quiet: only one cargo to Taiwan from WA/OR.

📝 Export Sales (still catch-up reports)

Week ending Nov 6:

• Beans: 510,600mt — down 59% w/w (China lead buyer)

• Corn: 979,500mt — down 51% w/w (Japan lead buyer)

• Wheat: 462,500mt — up 8% w/w (Japan lead buyer)

(Charts below)