Is China Angry About the US/Venezuela Situation?? Trade Truce at Risk?

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🌎 Geopolitics & Oil

The U.S. removal of Nicolás Maduro could significantly complicate **China’s oil and investment ties with Venezuela.

For years, China has been Venezuela’s largest oil buyer and creditor. While Venezuelan crude made up just about 4% of China’s total oil imports last year, it has played an important role in diversifying China’s energy supply.

President Trump’s push to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry is expected to weaken China’s influence in the region, introduce financial risks for Chinese banks, and force Beijing to reassess its broader Latin America strategy.

Through 2015, China extended more than $60 billion in oil-backed loans to Venezuela for infrastructure and energy projects. Roughly 20% of those loans are believed to be unpaid—raising major questions about repayment now that Maduro is out of power.

We’ve seen similar U.S. responses before when foreign powers got “too close to home,” including:

Cuba / Soviet Union (1962)

Grenada / Soviet Union (1983)

Panama / Noriega (1989)

🚢 Export Inspections

USDA reported stronger soybean inspections last week.

Soybeans: 980,518 mt

Up from the prior week

Down vs. last year

China accounted for roughly 40%

Corn: 1.2 mmt

Lower vs. last week

Strongly higher vs. last year

Wheat: 183,305 mt

Below expectations

Sharply lower week-over-week and year-over-year

Only one U.S. soybean cargo was inspected at the PNW versus several out of the Gulf.

Marketing-year-to-date shipments:

Soybeans: sharply behind last year

Corn: well ahead

Wheat: modestly higher

See charts below 👇

📊 Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)

USDA released its final catch-up export sales report for the week ending December 25.

Soybeans: Solid weekly sales, with China the top buyer

Corn: Toward the low end of expectations, led by Mexico

Wheat: Below expectations, with Colombia the top destination

See charts below 👇

🌱 Brazil Crop Update

StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate slightly to a record 177.6 mmt, citing excellent December growing conditions and strong yields in Mato Grosso.

Conab: 177.6 mmt

USDA: 175 mmt

Based on current USDA estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop is more than 50% larger than the U.S. crop this season.

Weather outlook from World Weather suggests generally favorable conditions, though parts of southern Argentina will need closer monitoring due to expected drying.

See chart below 👇

💰 Fund Positioning

The CFTC is now fully caught up on Commitment of Traders data.

Funds continued selling corn and soybeans

Soybean fund length has dropped sharply since mid-November

Small net buying was seen in SRW wheat

See Fund Tracker charts below 👇

🥇 Metals & Macro

Gold and silver surged amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Prices jumped following Maduro’s removal and comments from President Trump that the U.S. will now control Venezuela, including access to its oil reserves. Tensions also escalated after Trump reiterated his interest in Greenland, prompting sharp pushback from Denmark, which warned such a move would effectively end NATO.

See charts below 👇