Soybean Shorts Gets "Trump-Slapped" - YUGE Rally!!

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🌱 China & US Soybeans

China is considering boosting US soybean purchases. In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Donald Trump said China may raise its current-season buying target from 12 mmt to 20 mmt, sparking a sharp rally in soybean futures.

That said, it’s far from certain those additional purchases actually happen. After recently fulfilling its initial commitment, China has shifted back to cheaper South American supplies. Brazil is on track for a record soybean crop, keeping Brazilian prices attractive during the heart of their export window.

China has so far purchased 9.65 mmt of US soybeans for this marketing year, with a large share still unshipped. Trump’s comments imply potential additional buying before the August 31 marketing-year end — but the big question remains:

➡️ Will China really buy and ship US soybeans during peak Brazilian export season?

➡️ Are we headed toward a rare contra-seasonal export program tied to trade tensions?

Price action suggests optimism — even as many traders and analysts remain deeply pessimistic. See Trump’s post and charts below.

🚜 Farm Crisis Concerns Grow

Former US farm leaders and lawmakers are sounding the alarm on the worsening farm economy. In a letter to the Trump administration, former US Department of Agriculture officials and industry leaders warned of a potential “widespread collapse of American agriculture.”

They cited rising input costs and abundant global grain supplies that have pushed prices low enough for farmers to lose money three years in a row. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that average farm operating loan sizes jumped sharply last year.

While $12 billion in Farmer Bridge Assistance payments are set to go out soon, most agree the aid will only cover a fraction of producer losses.

🌽 Ethanol Production Slumps

US ethanol production fell hard last week, driven by plant slowdowns tied to high natural gas prices, limited availability, and severe winter weather. Output dropped well below the prior week and last year’s levels.

Ethanol stocks declined, while margins actually improved across much of the Corn Belt. According to Reuters data, margins range from modestly negative to modestly positive when factoring in corn, DDGs, and inputs. See ethanol charts below.

🐄 Texas Braces for Screwworm Threat

Texas ranchers are preparing for a potential return of New World screwworm. Since late December, 20 cases have been confirmed in Tamaulipas, Mexico — just south of the Texas border. The threat prompted Greg Abbott to issue a disaster declaration to unlock state resources.

Screwworm could cost Texas cattle producers hundreds of millions and hit the broader state economy even harder. The USDA plans to release glow-in-the-dark sterile flies in northern Mexico and south Texas, but full eradication would take years. Meanwhile, the continued ban on Mexican feeder cattle imports is adding further support to cattle prices. See the monthly Live Cattle chart below.

🌾 Corn Flash Sale

USDA also reported a flash sale of corn Wednesday. Exporters sold 130,480 mt to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery. Total accumulated corn sales are running well ahead of last year’s pace.