Imported US Fertilizer is TOO CHEAP...It's Being Re-Routed Overseas

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🌍 US Fertilizer Diverted Overseas — Traders are snapping up imported urea at the Port of New Orleans and flipping it to global markets as soaring international prices create a massive arbitrage opportunity. CME Gulf Urea peaked at $720/ton last week, and domestic farmers are feeling the squeeze with no relief in sight.

⚔️ Middle East Tensions Escalate — The US Navy fired on and boarded an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman over the weekend, throwing the fragile ceasefire into chaos despite Trump's claims of a near-finalized deal. WTI crude surged ~$5/bbl this morning to $89/bbl, though that's still well off last week's $106 peak.

🌧️ Planting Disruptions Across the Corn Belt — Heavy weekend rains soaked Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana — with some pockets seeing over 4" in 72 hours — throwing a wrench in corn and soybean planting progress. Meanwhile, HRW wheat country stayed bone dry and dealt with a brief freeze, adding more stress to an already strained crop outlook.

📊 Funds Selling Corn in Size — Large money managers dumped 58k corn contracts in the week ending April 14, bringing total selling since the late-March peak to 127k contracts. They still hold a net long of 153k contracts, with modest selling also seen in soybeans and SRW wheat.

🐄 Cattle Markets Rattled by Border Rumors — Cattle futures hit limit-down on speculation that Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins would announce a reopening of the US-Mexico feeder cattle border — but no announcement came, with screwworm confirmed just 200 miles from the line. The April 1 Cattle on Feed report came in neutral-to-friendly, with placements down 7% and heifers still at 37% of inventory — signaling no serious herd rebuilding just yet.