SUPER El Nino! Good or Bad for US Crops??

Joe's Premium Subscription

Apple Podcasts

🌽 Initial US crop conditions came in below last year's ratings and analyst expectations across corn, soybeans, and wheat. Winter wheat hit its lowest good-to-excellent rating since records began in 1986.

📉 Corn and soybean futures moved lower Monday despite a rally in crude oil, settling near multi-week lows. Weak grain prices were driven by a favorable US Corn Belt weather outlook and ample global supplies.

☀️ A strong El Niño is increasingly likely to develop by late July, with an 82% probability of formation according to the US Climate Prediction Center. Historically, strong El Niño years have been associated with record or near-record corn and soybean yields.

🛢️ Middle East tensions escalated after Iran suspended peace talks with the US, sending WTI crude surging 5.5% to just above $92 per barrel. Israeli PM Netanyahu signaled military operations in southern Lebanon would continue despite calls for a ceasefire.

🚢 US corn export inspections came in strong at 1.7 million metric tons last week, up over 5% from the same week last year. Soybean shipments were near the lower end of expectations but jumped 64% year-over-year, with China accounting for roughly 42% of inspections.

🥛 A whey protein shortage is emerging as food companies aggressively add protein to a wide range of products, pushing prices up 30–40% in recent months. Because whey is a byproduct of cheese production, supply can't easily expand, forcing manufacturers to explore alternatives like soy and pea protein.