Grain Markets and Other Stuff
@grainmarketsandotherstuff·35K subscribers·1.5K videos
Russia/Ukraine War Slows Grain Exports AGAIN + USDA Yield Estimates this Week
Posted
August 10, 2026
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August 10, 2026
12,412
538
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🌾 Ukraine grain exports could plunge as Russian attacks on Odesa disrupt Black Sea shipments, with the ag ministry slashing its export estimate 54% to 29.6mmt. 📦 Storage bins could be full by November, leaving an 11mmt shortfall as alternative routes through Romania can't fully replace Odesa's capacity.
📈 Wheat futures bounced back Friday, with Chicago Sep26 up nearly 9 cents to $6.40/bu and KC Sep26 up 14 cents to $7.14/bu on a weaker dollar and Black Sea worries. 🌽 Corn held mostly steady while soybeans slipped despite China ramping up US purchases, with traders positioning ahead of Wednesday's USDA report.
🌧️ This week's forecast looks favorable for the Corn Belt, with rain chances across the central and eastern regions offering relief from recent heat. ❄️ The hot, dry western Corn Belt should trend cooler and wetter by week's end, though rainfall may stay uneven in spots.
💰 CFTC data shows managed money added 18k corn contracts for the week ending August 4, pushing the net long to 145k contracts, the biggest since late May. 📉 Funds were net sellers of 28k soybean contracts and 17k SRW wheat contracts on the week.
🛳️ USDA flash sales Friday: 238,000mt (9mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇲🇽 Corn sales to Mexico totaled 286,097mt (11mil bu), split between the 2026/2027 and 2027/2028 marketing years.
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