Dunning-Kruger in Public Policy

Dunning-Kruger at Scale: The Reflecting Pool, Loyalists Over Experts, and Simple Fixes to Complex Problems

Dr. Geoffrey Grammer discusses the psychological and political consequences of placing loyalists rather than experts into key federal roles, using the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool as an example of overconfidence uncoupled from competence. He recounts how a plan estimated at a week and $1 million became three months and about $14 million, yet the pool remains green, with paint peeling after hydrogen peroxide was added. Grammer explains the Dunning-Kruger effect—how the skills needed to perform well are the same skills needed to evaluate performance—and argues that skipping expertise leads to cascading mistakes, like reseeding algae through uncleared supply lines and using peroxide that strips paint and may increase algae-feeding phosphates. He connects this pattern to broader governance, including the recent war in Iran, and urges voters to beware of simple solutions to complex problems.