Hawk Episodes Around July 1, 2026
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12:10Now PlayingThe Senate Math, the Supreme Court, and Why Democrats Need to Win Five Seats in November
Jul 1, 2026·7.9K views
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12:10Now PlayingThe Senate Math, the Supreme Court, and Why Democrats Need to Win Five Seats in November
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Hawk lays out the full Senate and Supreme Court math heading into the 2026 midterms. With the current count at 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, Democrats need a net gain of five seats rather than four, because John Fetterman's unreliability as a Democratic vote effectively costs the caucus one reliable yes. The key contested seats are Alaska, Ohio, North Carolina, Texas, Maine, and Iowa, with Democrats also needing to hold Jon Ossoff's seat in Georgia and the open New Hampshire seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.
Hawk walks through why Trump's efforts to primary Thom Tillis, John Cornyn, and Bill Cassidy out of the Senate have backfired badly. Those three senators, now with nothing to lose and openly burned by Trump, have joined Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Mitch McConnell in an informal caucus of six Republicans trying to check the administration's worst impulses. Hawk does the vote math on a potential Trump Supreme Court nominee and finds that between McConnell's unknown health status, Collins' political vulnerability against Graham Platner in Maine, and the lingering resentment from Tillis, Cornyn, and Cassidy, Trump may already lack the votes to confirm someone like Aileen Cannon, Emil Bove, or Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk even right now.
Hawk also notes that if Mitch McConnell dies, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear would appoint his replacement, potentially tipping the Senate to 51 to 49 Democrats even before a single midterm vote is cast. He closes by urging viewers to donate to and campaign for Mary Peltola in Alaska, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Roy Cooper in North Carolina, James Talarico in Texas, and Graham Platner in Maine.
#JamesTalarico #GrahamPlatner #MaryPeltola #SherrodBrown #RoyCooper #JonOssoff #SusanCollins #LisaMurkowski #MitchMcConnell #ThomTillis #JohnCornyn #BillCassidy #JohnFetterman #AndyBeshear #AileenCannon #MatthewKacsmaryk #EmilBove #SamuelAlito #ClarenceThomas #Hawk
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